Axial Seamount Eruption Watch: Scientists Prepare for Potential Explosion by 2025

Researchers are closely monitoring Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano situated approximately 470 kilometers off the Oregon coast, as it shows signs of an impending eruption. Current predictions suggest that an eruption could occur between July 2024 and the end of 2025. While the research team, led by geophysicist William Chadwick, cannot pinpoint an exact date, they have drawn their conclusions from significant indicators such as surface swelling and increased seismic activity. Recent measurements have revealed that the surface of Axial Seamount has swelled to nearly the same height as before its last eruption in 2015, indicating substantial magma accumulation beneath the seafloor. This swelling is a clear sign that pressure is building, heightening the potential for an eruption. Chadwick highlighted the unique opportunity presented by these predictions, stating, "Forecasting volcanic eruptions more than hours ahead is pretty unique." As one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the Northeast Pacific, Axial Seamount rises up to 1,100 meters and sits more than 1,400 meters underwater, making it a focal point of scientific interest and closely monitored activity. Since the installation of the first recording equipment in 1997, scientists have documented the seafloor's activity leading up to three previous eruptions: in 1997, 2011, and 2015. If the anticipated eruption takes place in 2025, it will mark a significant milestone in volcanology, as it could be one of the first underwater eruptions to be accurately predicted. Volcanologist Rebecca Carey from the University of Tasmania expressed excitement over the prospect, noting that early detection could enable the deployment of remotely operated vehicles to observe the eruption in real-time. The relatively frequent eruptions at Axial Seamount provide researchers with invaluable data, allowing them to refine their forecasting models and deepen their understanding of submarine volcanic processes. Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist from Roma Tre University, emphasized that the volcano serves as an excellent testing ground for forecasting ideas, while also cautioning about the unpredictable nature of volcanic activity. Despite Axial Seamount's remote location posing minimal immediate threat to human populations, the potential for eruptions raises critical questions regarding preparedness. While submarine volcanoes typically present a lower risk compared to their terrestrial counterparts, their eruptions can lead to significant consequences, as demonstrated by the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai, which triggered a damaging tsunami across the Pacific. An increase in seismic activity around Axial Seamount, with hundreds of earthquakes occurring daily, indicates the ongoing movement of magma and confirms that the volcano is in a heightened state of activity. This situation mirrors patterns seen before previous eruptions, reinforcing the importance of monitoring and analyzing these warning signs. The monitoring system that has been established at Axial Seamount proved its efficacy in 2015 when surface swelling foreshadowed the volcano's eruption, validating the predictions made by Chadwick and his team. With advanced technology and artificial intelligence, researchers are now analyzing seismic data from the past eruptions to identify specific precursors that could be vital for forecasting future events. Understanding underwater eruptions is crucial as they influence biological ecosystems and hydrothermal systems. Observing an eruption as it happens offers a rare opportunity for researchers to study its effects on the environment, including insights into hydrothermal systems and surrounding biological communities. As the forecasted eruption approaches, scientists plan to intensify their monitoring efforts, utilizing ground swelling, seismic activity, and other indicators to refine their predictions. Ultimately, the goal is to enhance eruption forecasting systems, improving preparedness and safety for coastal communities around the world. Axial Seamount stands as a critical site for advancing the science of eruption prediction, bridging the gap between theoretical models and practical applications in volcanic monitoring.