Ethiopia Faces Earthquake Crisis: 80,000 Evacuated Amid Volcanic Eruption Fears

In recent weeks, Ethiopia has experienced a significant increase in seismic activity, resulting in a series of earthquakes and aftershocks that have raised concerns about potential volcanic eruptions and the stability of vital infrastructure, particularly the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Since December 22, 2023, the Afar, Oromia, and Amhara regions have been rocked by numerous tremors, including a major quake measuring 8.1 that struck today, with its epicenter located east of the capital, Addis Ababa. The seismic events have prompted the evacuation of over 80,000 residents from affected areas, as officials monitor the situation closely. The Ethiopian Red Cross Society has initiated a rapid assessment, revealing that approximately 81,750 individuals have been impacted by the earthquakes. Concerns are escalating regarding emergency shelter, food security, and access to clean water for those displaced. As smoke has been reported emanating from vents in the Dofen shield volcano, fears of a volcanic eruption have intensified, forcing authorities to act swiftly to protect the population. Sudanese geoscientists have weighed in on the situation, attempting to quell fears surrounding the GERD, which has been a focal point of regional tensions. They assert that the earthquakes, while concerning, pose no immediate threat to the dam itself. Abdelkarim El Amin, a Sudanese engineer specializing in surveying and earth sciences, emphasized that the nearest seismic activity is more than 100 kilometers away from the dam, which was engineered to withstand seismic disturbances. El Amin highlighted that the structural integrity of the GERD is not currently compromised, noting that it is designed to withstand earthquakes, even at full capacity. While there are concerns regarding water levels in the reservoir lake and potential leaks at the lake bed, he maintains that these issues are unlikely to impact the dam's safety in light of the recent seismic events. The GERD has broader implications for the Nile Basin's environmental dynamics, with El Amin acknowledging that while it poses a security issue for downstream countries, such as Sudan and Egypt, the fear of a catastrophic failure remains largely theoretical. He pointed out that a worst-case scenario involving a partial collapse could result in severe flooding across the low-lying plains of Sudan, potentially overwhelming existing infrastructure along the Nile and affecting key dams such as Rosaries, Sennar, and Meroe. In light of these concerns, El Amin has called for a comprehensive investigation into the environmental and hydrological impacts of the GERD, urging collaboration among scientists and policymakers from all Nile Basin countries. He contends that a scientific approach, devoid of political agendas, is essential for addressing the complex challenges presented by the dam and ensuring the sustainable management of water resources in the region. As Ethiopia continues to grapple with the fallout from these seismic events, the focus remains on the safety of its citizens and the stability of critical infrastructure, with experts emphasizing the importance of preparedness and collaboration in the face of natural disasters.