Underwater Volcano Axial Seamount: A Prediction Playground for Future Eruptions

Off the coast of Oregon, an undersea volcano called Axial Seamount is poised for an eruption, with scientists predicting it will likely occur this year. This volcano, located about 300 miles offshore and nearly a mile beneath the surface, is the most active in the Pacific Northwest, yet remains largely unknown to the public. William Chadwick, a professor of geology at Oregon State University, leads the research on Axial Seamount. He notes that while its eruption will not trigger a tsunami or a significant land-based earthquake—thanks to its depth and distance from the Cascadia fault—the insights gained from this volcano could be instrumental in forecasting eruptions of more dangerous volcanoes worldwide. "Successful forecasting at Axial could help us apply our findings to other, more dangerous settings," Chadwick explained. Historically, scientists have struggled to provide advance notice of volcanic eruptions, often only able to predict them in a matter of days or hours. However, Axial Seamount is uniquely situated at the juncture of two tectonic plates—the Juan de Fuca and the Pacific plates—making it one of the most well-studied volcanoes on the planet. Discovered by satellites in the late 1970s, Axial’s surface deformation has been monitored since the late 1990s, marking significant volcanic activity during prior eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Its frequent eruptions are a result of the magma supply, which flows fluidly, creating gentle slopes similar to those of Hawaiian and Icelandic volcanoes rather than the explosive characteristics of Cascade volcanoes like Mount St. Helens. Chadwick describes the volcano's behavior as akin to a balloon inflating and deflating, with the summit rising as magma accumulates and subsiding following an eruption. This mechanism allows the team to monitor inflation rates to predict future eruptions accurately. Recent observations indicate that the ground around Axial has risen to levels similar to those seen before the 2015 eruption, prompting forecasts for a potential eruption this year. Utilizing state-of-the-art equipment, Chadwick’s team has established an impressive real-time monitoring system that streams data directly from Axial Seamount to their computers. Bottom pressure sensors and advanced instruments connected through a fiberoptic cable allow researchers to observe the volcano's activity continuously. This level of monitoring makes Axial Seamount the best-observed underwater volcano in the world. While Axial's relatively predictable behavior is beneficial for scientific study, Chadwick acknowledges that recent changes in inflation patterns following the 2015 eruption have made predictions more challenging. He remains optimistic, however, as the inflation rate has surged again, leading to increased seismic activity. The implications of successfully forecasting Axial Seamount's eruption extend beyond regional interests. According to Michael Poland, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, less than half of the world's above-water volcanoes—and even fewer underwater ones—have real-time monitoring systems. Axial’s long-standing research history positions it as a model for future volcanic studies. Chadwick emphasizes the unique opportunity to conduct this research without the risk of impacting human lives. Unlike on-land volcanoes, where false alarms can cause panic and economic disruption, Axial's eruptions pose no threat to communities due to its significant depth. The contrast with other underwater volcanic activities, such as the 2022 Tonga eruption, highlights Axial's relative safety. The Tonga eruption occurred in shallow waters, resulting in a catastrophic explosion and tsunami, a scenario that will not unfold with Axial. Looking ahead, Chadwick envisions a future where artificial intelligence and machine learning will play pivotal roles in analyzing the vast data collected from Axial Seamount's monitoring efforts. These advancements could provide deeper insights into volcanic activity and improve predictions for eruptions in the world's oceans, which account for three-quarters of the Earth's volcanic activity. In sum, Axial Seamount serves as a critical natural laboratory for understanding submarine volcanic behavior and forecasting eruptions. As scientists continue to unlock its mysteries, they may ultimately learn valuable lessons that will enhance volcanic monitoring and hazard preparedness across the globe.