Black Sea Coast Faces Looming Earthquake Threat as Experts Warn of Major Risks

In a stark warning to residents and local authorities, Geology Engineer Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş has raised concerns about the seismic risks facing the Black Sea coast. With a potential for earthquakes reaching magnitudes of 6.6 or higher, the region must brace for significant geological events at any moment. This alarming prediction comes in the wake of a recent 3.2 magnitude earthquake in the Akçaabat district of Trabzon, which has raised questions about the stability of the area. Prof. Dr. Bektaş highlighted the precarious position of the Trabzon-Rize coast, nestled between two major earthquake zones. To the south lies the notorious North Anatolian Fault, one of the most active faults in Turkey, while the Black Sea fault looms to the north. This dual-threat scenario places the coastal regions at a heightened risk for severe earthquakes, which could have devastating consequences. The Eastern Black Sea Region has already experienced its fair share of natural disasters, including landslides, rockfalls, floods, and inundations. According to Prof. Dr. Bektaş, the increase in seismic activity — particularly small earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault — has been linked to a rise in landslide occurrences. "The stress on the faults from these earthquakes is significant and can trigger larger geological events," he explained. Using data from the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), Bektaş presented a chilling forecast: there is a 90% probability that the Black Sea fault could produce an earthquake of 6.6 magnitude within the next 50 years, with a 10% chance of an even greater quake. The implication is clear: infrastructure and building practices in the region must be adapted to meet these seismic challenges. Moreover, the geology of the Black Sea coast itself poses additional risks. The sandy coastal areas can exacerbate the effects of an earthquake, increasing the likelihood of damage. As Prof. Dr. Bektaş noted, "The combination of sandy soils and seismic activity creates a perfect storm for disaster." The recent seismic events serve as a precursor to the potential dangers ahead. The aftershocks following the 2012 5.6 magnitude earthquake in the Trabzon fault reached far into the coastal area, indicating an increase in stress on the local geological structures. Similarly, the 4.7 magnitude earthquake in Çamlıhemşin, Rize, has heightened concerns regarding the stability of the slopes in the region, which are now experiencing active landslides. Prof. Dr. Bektaş underscored that the factors leading to landslides are multifaceted. While rainfall is a known trigger, the constant rising of the mountains and the increased seismicity in the area also contribute significantly. "These small to medium-sized earthquakes act like a hammer on the slopes, mobilizing fractured and unstable structures," he warned. As the Eastern Black Sea coast continues to grapple with the repercussions of geological instability, the message is clear: preparedness is paramount. Local governments and residents must take proactive measures to fortify the region against the threat of earthquakes and landslides, ensuring the safety and resilience of communities situated in this vulnerable coastal area.