Advancing Earthquake Science: Shifting Focus from Prediction to Preparedness and Resilience

Scientists have made significant strides in understanding where earthquakes are likely to occur, but the challenge of predicting when these seismic events will strike remains elusive. According to seismologist Jackson, earthquakes on continents are inherently shallow, typically originating from depths of just tens of kilometers. This shallow nature of quakes poses unique challenges, especially in metropolitan areas that have rapidly expanded since the last major earthquakes occurred—a fact that can easily be forgotten amidst the daily struggles of urban life, such as pollution and poverty. Jackson notes, “When the big quake happens, it just overwhelms them.” In Australia, public concern about a large earthquake is minimal, yet the tectonic activity beneath the surface is ongoing. The Australian continent is slowly drifting north-east at a rate of approximately 7 centimeters a year. This gradual movement leads to smaller tremors, while scientists are investigating unusually shallow quakes that may indicate changes in gravitational forces beneath the surface. The varying densities of rocks that formed Australia’s original mountains have created pockets of differing gravitational pull, potentially causing stress buildup. Jackson has been at the forefront of integrating advanced technologies, originally developed for military purposes, into earthquake science. These tools, including radar and satellite imagery, have enhanced our ability to assess the Earth’s movements following seismic events. He recalls his early career in the 1980s when funding from defense projects allowed research into earthquakes to flourish. The Cold War era emphasized seismology as a means of monitoring nuclear tests, which inadvertently advanced our understanding of geological dynamics. Despite advances, the quest to predict earthquakes with precision remains out of reach. Jackson points out the public’s desire for specific predictions, such as “the quake will be Tuesday at 3 PM,” but emphasizes that giving people false hope about our predictive capabilities could lead to complacency, ultimately costing lives. Historical efforts to predict quakes have often fallen short; for instance, a focused effort in 1970s California aimed to leverage historical patterns but missed the mark by a decade. One notable success story came from China in 1975 when authorities evacuated the city of Haicheng based on seismic monitoring that detected a swarm of smaller quakes. This timely evacuation likely saved lives during the subsequent major quake, although the years that followed saw devastating earthquakes without warning, highlighting the inherent unpredictability of seismic activity. Jackson notes that while scientists have explored a myriad of potential precursors to earthquakes—including animal behaviors and electromagnetic signals—none have proven reliable enough to warrant serious consideration. The understanding of earthquakes as a dynamic conversation within the Earth’s crust, marked by shifting stress along fault lines, continues to evolve. However, predicting specific events remains a work in progress. In the wake of an earthquake, the devastation can be catastrophic, as seen in the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, where inadequate warning systems and preparedness led to significant loss of life. In contrast, regions like Chile, New Zealand, and Japan have developed robust building codes and preparedness strategies that significantly mitigate the impact of earthquakes. For instance, buildings in these areas are often designed to withstand seismic activity, and public education campaigns ensure that residents know how to respond effectively when tremors occur. A significant lesson from past earthquakes is the importance of preparedness over prediction. Jackson reflects on the aftermath of the 2015 quake in Nepal, where newly reinforced schools stood firm amidst widespread destruction of older buildings. The ability to anticipate the nature of potential quakes allows architects and engineers to design structures that can withstand significant shaking, protecting lives. Countries like Japan exemplify the effectiveness of early warning systems that can provide precious seconds of advance notice before a quake strikes. These systems can halt trains, open elevator doors, and shut off utilities, greatly reducing the potential for chaos and harm. However, urban centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco, which sit directly on major fault lines, receive no warning, underscoring the need for community awareness and resilience-building measures. Ultimately, Jackson advocates for a shift in focus from attempting to predict earthquakes to ensuring that structures are built with resilience in mind. This approach not only protects lives but also reduces the economic burden of reconstruction after a disaster. As demonstrated by successful practices in various countries, investing in preparation and adherence to building codes can save countless lives and minimize damage, providing a more pragmatic and effective response to the ever-present threat of earthquakes.