Putin ignores the future of Syria in military meeting, focused on Ukraine and NATO.

During the recent annual meeting of the Russian military high command, President Vladimir Putin and his Defense Minister, Andrei Belousov, addressed various topics of international relevance, including NATO and the situation in Ukraine. However, what surprised many was the complete omission of a critical issue: Syria. This unusual silence regarding the future of their close ally, Bashar al-Assad, reflects a growing concern in the Kremlin about Russia's influence in the Middle East and the prospects for its military bases in the region. The fall of al-Assad, which occurred more than a week ago, has generated an atmosphere of uncertainty in Moscow. Anton Mardasov, a military analyst in the region, notes that "it's better not to say anything" regarding this delicate matter. This evasive approach stands in stark contrast to the optimism that prevailed a year ago when then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated Russia's position as a guarantor of peace in Syria. The withdrawal of Russian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, a strategically important enclave in the Caucasus, has added a new level of complexity to the situation. The loss of influence in this area, which was previously part of the Soviet Union, has left Russia in a vulnerable position, especially following the recent ousting of al-Assad, which could further limit the Kremlin's efforts to regain its status as a global power. In this context, it is suggested that Russia may be forced to reduce its military presence in Syria. While the bases in Hmeimim and Tartus may remain operational, their strategic relevance would be compromised. Mardasov warns that Russia's ability to use these facilities as launch pads for military operations in the Mediterranean or Africa is threatened by the deteriorating security situation in Syria. Meanwhile, the Kremlin's attention appears to be completely focused on the war in Ukraine. Putin maintains the narrative that he is making progress, both on the battlefield and in his confrontation with the West. However, the impact of international politics and elections in Europe, where political figures skeptical of support for Ukraine are gaining ground, could influence the future trajectory of the war. Recently, Russia has begun to reduce its deployment in Syria. Satellite images have shown the packing of Russian military equipment and the relocation of troops to the bases in Hmeimim and Tartus. This has raised speculation about the future of the Russian military presence and the possibility of rapprochement with opposition groups that have overthrown al-Assad. The Kremlin, through its spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, has indicated that a "definitive decision" regarding its future in Syria has not yet been made, while dialogues with other powers involved in the conflict are ongoing. However, the lack of clarity and inertia in response to the new reality in Syria is evidence of a Kremlin facing a strategic dilemma. Additionally, some European Union officials have raised the possibility of Russia's exit from Syria as a condition for lifting sanctions imposed on the country. Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, has emphasized that the removal of Russian influence must be a condition for any new leadership in Syria, adding pressure on the Kremlin at an already critical moment. As President Putin focuses on the war in Ukraine, the narrative in Russian state media attempts to present the situation in Syria as a challenge overcome, blaming the West for any instability that persists in the country. This approach seeks to divert attention from a conflict that has clearly taken an unfavorable turn for Russian interests. Finally, the absence of a clear plan for the Middle East region, along with the growing uncertainty regarding al-Assad's future, raises a troubling question about Russia's ability to project its influence in an area it once considered an integral part of its sphere of influence. With the Kremlin's attention firmly fixed on Ukraine, it seems that Syria has fallen into the background, leaving many observers wondering what the ultimate fate of Russia's strategy in the region will be.