Draisaitl's Mega Deal Sparks Debate: What Will McDavid's Contract Look Like?

Leon Draisaitl's recent contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers, valued at a staggering $112 million over eight years, has ignited a significant conversation in the NHL: What does this mean for the future of Connor McDavid and his forthcoming contract negotiations? Draisaitl's $14 million average annual value (AAV) is the highest in NHL history, second only to Alex Ovechkin's legendary deal from 2008. With this landmark agreement, questions arise not just about how much McDavid could command, but also how the Oilers will navigate the financial implications of such hefty salaries. As the salary cap rises significantly after years of pandemic-induced stagnation, the financial landscape of the NHL has changed dramatically. This past offseason saw the salary cap increase by over 5%, reaching $88 million, with projections suggesting it could ascend to at least $92.4 million by the 2025-26 season, coinciding with the beginning of Draisaitl's new deal. Given this backdrop, Draisaitl's contract is strikingly representative of the percentage of the cap, which aligns with recent contracts signed by Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews. Each of these contracts is not only a reflection of each player's on-ice performance but also a response to a rapidly changing salary environment. Draisaitl's deal, although incredibly lucrative, leads to the inevitable comparison with McDavid. The Oilers' captain has set the bar even higher with a contract that constituted 15.72% of the salary cap when signed in 2017. As McDavid approaches his next contract negotiation, the question looms: Can we expect him to settle for less than 16% of the cap? The answer likely leans towards "no." Historical data shows that few contracts have surpassed the 15% of the salary cap threshold in the past decade, making McDavid's situation unique. The only relevant precedents for contracts exceeding this mark are from another era of hockey, where the financial landscape was markedly different. Contracts like those signed by Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Vincent Lecavalier in the mid-2000s reflect a bygone era where salary negotiations operated under different constraints and expectations. Looking ahead, McDavid's next contract could begin at a minimum of $15.25 million based on cap projections, but the real expectation is that it will exceed that. Extrapolating from Draisaitl's deal, it's conceivable that McDavid could command a salary upwards of $19 million annually if he were to enter unrestricted free agency. This potential sum raises concerns for the Oilers' salary cap flexibility, particularly with only five other players under contract for the 2026-27 season and the looming necessity to sign rising stars like Evan Bouchard. The financial forecasts suggest that the duo of McDavid and Draisaitl could cost Edmonton upwards of $30 million, placing significant strain on the rest of the roster. The Oilers will need to tread carefully as they balance securing their star players with the broader goal of maintaining a competitive lineup. The priority must be to lock down their superstars first and then work backward to fill out the roster, a strategy that is unconventional but perhaps necessary in the current climate. As contracts and expectations evolve, the broader implications for the NHL's financial structure are evident. The upcoming labor negotiations, along with the potential for another CBA agreement, could influence McDavid's decision to pursue a long-term contract. Should the Oilers capture the coveted Stanley Cup before he signs an extension, McDavid's motivations may shift, potentially leading him to want to finalize a deal that secures his legacy in Edmonton. In the end, Draisaitl's contract has undoubtedly reshaped the conversation around player salaries, especially for McDavid, who stands as an outlier in terms of talent and achievement. The expectations are sky-high, and whatever figure McDavid commands, it will likely be deemed a bargain given his unparalleled contributions to the game. As fans eagerly await the unfolding drama of contract negotiations, one thing remains clear: the stakes have never been higher for both the player and the franchise.