Energy crisis in Peru: decreasing reserves and social conflicts threaten the future.

The situation of oil and gas in Peru is critical and raises serious questions about the future of these vital resources for the country's economy. As stated by María Julia Aybar, president of the hydrocarbons sector committee of the National Society of Mining, Oil, and Energy (SNMPE), the outlook is not encouraging. The country is facing an energy crisis that is exacerbated by growing uncertainty in the sector and the lack of necessary investments to reactivate production. One of the main problems facing the industry is the significant decrease in oil production, especially in the northern jungle, where crucial operations in blocks such as 8, 192, 67, and 39 have been halted due to social and environmental conflicts. These conflicts have not only impeded production but have also sparked a debate on how to achieve a balance between economic development and the protection of indigenous communities and their environment. The situation with natural gas is no better. The country's reserves have halved in the last eight years, dropping from 16.1 to 8.4 trillion cubic feet. This drastic reduction means that Peru only has enough supply for 16.7 years, instead of the 35 to 40 years that are commonly mentioned. The lack of new discoveries since 2013 is alarming, as noted by Carlos Bianchi, former exploration manager of Peru-Petro. Without investment in exploration, the future of these resources looks bleak. The crisis not only affects production and reserves but has also impacted education and the training of future professionals in the sector. The Faculty of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Petrochemicals Engineering at the National University of Engineering (UNI) has seen a drastic drop in enrollment, with only two students in 2022. This reflects the pessimism among young people regarding job opportunities in a crisis-hit sector, which could have long-term repercussions on the country's ability to develop its hydrocarbons industry. The lack of activity in production blocks has led to a migration of people seeking opportunities, as is the case for many former residents of blocks 8 and 192 who have moved to block 95, where the company Petrotal is currently producing. This population growth in the area has generated new social demands, complicating the situation for operating companies, which must meet the expectations of an increasing population. In light of this situation, the Government has expressed its intention to reactivate activity in the hydrocarbons sector. The Deputy Minister of Hydrocarbons, Iris Cárdenas, has emphasized the need to start reactivating blocks 67 and 39, which have been abandoned by the company Perenco due to social conflicts and high production costs. The challenge is immense, as the viability of these projects is in doubt due to pressure from indigenous communities and the possibility that natural reserves will be declared in the area. Reactivating blocks 67 and 39 is crucial, as they contain significant reserves of crude oil, albeit of lower quality. According to experts, the success of these initiatives will depend not only on the available reserves but also on the Government's ability to mediate social conflicts and ensure legal security for companies. However, the situation in the northern jungle is complex, with communities continuing to block access routes and expressing their dissatisfaction with the lack of benefits from resource extraction in their territories. In the south of the country, the outlook is different, with efforts to reactivate natural gas exploration. However, these initiatives are marked by bureaucratic difficulties and the lack of clear incentives for companies. Negotiations with Pluspetrol to explore the deep horizons of Camisea are at a standstill, limiting the possibilities of finding new reserves that could alleviate the crisis. Meanwhile, offshore exploration sparks hope, with companies like Anadarko advancing in seismic exploration campaigns at sea. The results of these investigations could open new opportunities for the Peruvian energy sector, but time to act is limited. Geologists warn that if new exploratory wells are not drilled, the country could face a situation similar to Colombia, which will be forced to import gas in the near future. The energy crisis in Peru is not just a present problem but poses an uncertain future for the economy and energy security of the country. The lack of investment in exploration, social conflicts, and the deterioration of reserves are challenges that require urgent attention. The path to reactivating the hydrocarbons sector will be difficult and will require a balanced approach that considers both economic development and social and environmental responsibility.