Challenges and setbacks in the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery: Is energy sovereignty at risk?

The construction of the long-awaited Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco, a flagship project for the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has faced a series of difficulties that have led to delays, leaks, and cost overruns, calling into question the goal of achieving the coveted energy sovereignty for the country. From the beginning, the construction of this industrial complex consisting of 18 plants has been plagued with problems both in planning and execution. Despite the initial projections of the president, who assured its completion in three years with a budget of 8.000 million dollars, official data reveal a very different reality. As the current Administration nears its end, the Dos Bocas refinery is still under construction and the expenditure has exceeded 16.000 million dollars, more than double the initial estimate. The complications have not been limited to delays and exceeded costs, but incidents such as the recent gas leak at the Olmeca refinery facilities in Dos Bocas, which forced the evacuation of Pemex workers and subcontracted companies, have also occurred. Fortunately, there were no injuries or material damages, but the plant's operation was affected, leading to a temporary suspension of work. Although it is reported that the combined plant of the Dos Bocas refinery is already in operation, producing sour gasoline that needs to be processed for use due to its high sulfur content and low octane, challenges persist. The testing and start-up process of a project of this magnitude typically takes between 12 and 18 months, further extending the wait to see concrete results. Furthermore, the Olmeca refinery, designed to distill 340,000 barrels of crude oil daily, is expected to significantly contribute to the energy sovereignty goal promoted by President López Obrador. However, delays in its start-up raise doubts about the promptness with which the set objectives will be achieved, especially considering a production of 177,000 barrels per day was projected for the second half of this year. The escalation in costs has also been significant, as the initially estimated 8.800 million dollars have been widely exceeded, reaching 16.000 million dollars according to official reports. This situation has sparked criticism and questions about the economic viability and resource management in such a large-scale project. On the other hand, the assertion that self-sufficiency in fuel production will be achieved starting from 2025, despite the significant transfers made in favor of Pemex since 2019, presents a less encouraging outlook in the short term. The expectations that Mexico will be able to meet its own gasoline demand are delayed, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the energy policies implemented so far. In summary, the Dos Bocas refinery is a project that has faced numerous obstacles and challenges on its path towards the production of domestic gasoline. The delays, leaks, and cost overruns have highlighted the complexity and inherent difficulties in launching an industrial complex of this magnitude. The promises of energy sovereignty are still far from being realized, generating uncertainty about the future of the oil industry in Mexico and the government's ability to meet its energy objectives.