Cuba in crisis: "war economy" sparks uncertainty and fear

Cuba is immersed in a deep economic crisis that has reached such an extreme that the country's own authorities have declared that they are living in a "war economy." This term, which evokes images of scarcity, state control, and extreme measures, has sparked various reactions among the Cuban population, who have been facing difficulties for years such as food shortages, inadequate salaries, and exorbitant prices. The announcement of the "war economy" by the Cuban government in a recent meeting of the Council of Ministers has generated more uncertainty than fear among citizens. The economic crisis on the island is not something new, but has been ongoing since the loss of Soviet economic aid in the 1990s, from which Cuba never fully recovered. Scarcity and precariousness are daily realities for the Cuban population, so the new term used by the authorities does not seem to substantially change the situation. For some experts, like Ricardo Torres, a former researcher at the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy, the term "war economy" could be a government strategy to justify unpopular measures, such as spending cuts and tax increases. Torres argues that a combination of internal and external factors has led Cuba to this economic crisis situation, which has not been properly managed by the authorities. Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, former director of the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy at the University of Havana, considers the use of this term risky, as it could encourage emigration and discourage potential foreign investors. He also warns that the announced measures, such as price controls and budget cuts, could negatively impact small and medium-sized private businesses on the island. The private sector in Cuba has expressed concern about the new measures, especially regarding the potential impact on their businesses. Government-imposed restrictions and controls could limit the supply of products and services, exacerbating scarcity and affecting the purchasing power of the population, which is already in a precarious situation. Analysts agree that the announced measures aim to increase state control over the economy, in an attempt to maintain a balance between the private and state sectors. However, many believe that these measures are temporary patches that do not address the structural causes of the crisis, such as the need for reforms in state-owned enterprises and the promotion of agricultural and manufacturing production. The economic crisis in Cuba has worsened in recent years, reaching levels surpassing those experienced during the so-called Special Period in the nineties. The urgent request for assistance from the United Nations World Food Programme to ensure milk for children under seven years old highlights the severity of the situation on the island. Inflation, economic contraction, and the depreciation of the Cuban currency are just some of the indicators of the crisis that has plunged Cuba into misery. Despite the government's attempts to implement palliative measures, such as price caps and budget cuts, the economic crisis in Cuba seems far from finding a definitive solution. Experts agree on the need to implement structural reforms that boost production and the country's economy, rather than continuing to apply short-term measures that do not address the root causes. In this context of economic uncertainty and precariousness, the Cuban population continues to face difficulties in accessing food, medicines, and basic goods, while the government tries to maintain control and find a balance between the state and private sectors. The "war economy" in which Cuba is immersed seems to reflect a prolonged and deep crisis that requires structural solutions and a long-term approach to achieve true economic and social recovery on the island.