Sheinbaum's challenge: Mexico-US relations under the shadow of Trump

The resounding victory of Claudia Sheinbaum in the Mexican elections has opened a new chapter in the relationship between Mexico and the United States. The closeness that Sheinbaum's government maintains with the U.S. administration will depend largely on the results of the presidential elections in the United States, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Sheinbaum, the next president of Mexico, has been compared to Andrés Manuel López Obrador in terms of political alignment. However, unlike AMLO, Sheinbaum is characterized by a more reserved and disciplined style, which could make it difficult to replicate the cordial relationship that existed between López Obrador and Trump. According to analysts and former diplomats, it is unlikely that Sheinbaum will have the same kind of "bromance" with Trump that characterized the relationship between him and López Obrador. This poses a challenge for the next Mexican president in case Trump is reelected, as tensions could arise on key issues such as trade, migration, and security. Mexico's economy depends largely on the United States, being the country's main trading partner. Close to 80% of Mexican exports are destined for the United States, highlighting the importance of maintaining a strong and stable relationship with the northern neighbor. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), scheduled for review in 2026, will be a crucial point in the bilateral relationship under Sheinbaum's leadership. Potential points of friction include energy policy and the presence of Chinese investment in strategic Mexican sectors. In addition to trade aspects, cooperation on security and migration issues will also be fundamental in the relationship between Mexico and the United States. Under a second term of Trump, increased pressure on Mexico would be expected to address issues such as drug trafficking and migratory flows. The recent signing of an executive order by Joe Biden, which establishes stricter measures at the southern border of the United States, shows how decisions on immigration can also influence the bilateral relationship. Both Democrats and Republicans have pressured Mexico in this regard, which could lead to additional tensions. The fact that Sheinbaum is the first female president of Mexico could also influence the dynamics with Trump, given the controversial rhetoric and policies of the U.S. president on gender and feminism. Sheinbaum's leadership style and feminist stances could clash with those of Trump, adding an additional element of complexity to the bilateral relationship. In summary, the relationship between Mexico and the United States under Claudia Sheinbaum's leadership faces several challenges, from trade and security aspects to ideological and gender differences. Sheinbaum's ability to navigate these obstacles and maintain a constructive relationship with the United States will be crucial for the future of cooperation between both countries.