The path to Modi's victory in the Indian elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on track for a comfortable victory in the Indian elections, whose counting began this Tuesday with results expected on the same day. After a decade promoting his Hindu nationalist agenda, 73-year-old Modi is heading towards a third term despite accusations from the opposition and concerns about the rights of religious minorities in the country. A total of 642 million people participated in these elections, held in seven phases over six weeks, representing a logistical challenge due to the complexity of organizing elections in the world's most populous nation. Over the weekend, following the closure of the last polling stations, Modi expressed confidence that people in India had voted in record numbers in favor of his government. Even before the polling stations opened in mid-April, analysts were already predicting a clear victory for Modi, who has maintained wide popularity after more than a decade in power. His opponents have struggled to counter the strength of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and have faced legal proceedings they denounce as part of Modi's political campaign against dissent. For example, the case of the Chief Minister of the capital, New Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, arrested in March for corruption, released in May for the election campaign, and re-incarcerated on Sunday, has been highlighted by opponents as an example of political repression. Kejriwal, a key figure in the opposition alliance formed to curb Modi, stated that "when power turns into dictatorship, prison becomes an obligation." Modi's policies have also raised concerns among the religious minority of over 200 million Muslims in India, who feel uneasy about their future in a constitutionally secular country. During the election campaign, Modi referred to Muslims as "infiltrators," intensifying fears within this community. The elections posed a logistical challenge in this vast country, with ballot boxes distributed in megacities like New Delhi and Bombay, as well as in remote forest areas and in the conflict-ridden region of Kashmir, at the foot of the Himalayas. To facilitate the counting, electronic voting machines were used, allowing for a quick announcement of the results. The counting started at 08:00 local time at the counting centers in each state, where data was entered into computers. Indian major television networks deployed reporters at each center to announce the results of the 543 seats in the Lower House of Parliament as quickly as possible. If the exit poll forecasts are confirmed, the BJP and its allies would secure at least 355 seats, triggering celebrations at Modi's party headquarters. Although participation in these elections slightly decreased compared to previous ones, a "world record" of 642 million votes was registered, according to the head of the electoral commission. However, this decline in participation is partly attributed to the high temperatures recorded in northern India in recent weeks, with temperatures reaching around 45°C. Tragically, at least 33 election workers lost their lives due to heatstroke in the state of Uttar Pradesh, where the thermometer reached 46.9°C, highlighting the challenges and extreme conditions under which these elections were conducted.