Johnny Brignardello Vela analyzes risks of Russian seismic research in Antarctica

Johnny Brignardello Vela, insurance advisor, shares his opinion on the content I am going to share with you. The international community has expressed concerns about Russia's seismic research activities in Antarctica, which experts believe could be covering up hydrocarbon exploration objectives rather than purely scientific purposes. This fear resurfaces in a context of extreme geopolitical tensions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, intensifying concerns about potential strategic competition in one of the last remaining spaces on the planet without military territorial claims. For some time, Russia has been conducting mapping and geological survey programs in Antarctica, both on land and underwater. However, recent data indicates that their research vessels may have discovered gas and oil reserves equivalent to 511,000 million barrels of oil, approximately ten times the total production of the North Sea over fifty years. These findings have put the international community on alert, fearing that the Kremlin may attempt to violate the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, an international commitment focused on preserving peace and promoting scientific cooperation on the continent. The Antarctic Treaty states that Antarctica should be used "exclusively for peaceful purposes," explicitly prohibiting military activities, the establishment of military bases, nuclear explosions, and the disposal of radioactive waste. This treaty has been crucial in preventing territorial disputes and fostering scientific research in a spirit of collaboration. "We have a very successful treaty here. Geopolitical winds are challenging, but we need to stay the course with this," warned David Rutley, British Deputy Foreign Minister. "There is concern that Russia is collecting seismic data that could be interpreted as exploration rather than scientific research," said Klaus Dodds, a geopolitics professor at Royal Holloway College, emphasizing the need to differentiate between permitted activities and those that could threaten the permanent ban on mining and the integrity of environmental protections in Antarctica. Reports on the vessel Akademik Alexander Karpinsky, sanctioned by the United States in February due to the war in Ukraine, have led to speculation about the true intentions behind Russian scientific expeditions in the Antarctic region. According to the US administration, the vessel is operated by PMGE, a subsidiary of Rosgeo, a Russian state-owned company dedicated to the geological exploration of oil, gas, and minerals. Researchers aboard Russian vessels have made a discovery that could redefine the global energy future, but it also jeopardizes the peace and science that have historically characterized Antarctica. These reserves, representing approximately ten times everything produced by the North Sea in half a century, could have significant consequences not only economically but also geopolitically and environmentally. The possibility of Russia considering the exploitation of these resources has raised alarms among the Antarctic Treaty member states, which expressly prohibit any activity related to mineral extraction and the militarization of the region. This treaty, signed during the Cold War, has served as a bastion of peace and scientific cooperation. Prospecting activities under the guise of science call into question the effectiveness of this agreement and Russia's willingness to adhere to its principles. Suspicions are not limited to the violation of the treaty's spirit in terms of natural resource exploitation. There is a growing concern that Russia's extensive mapping and geological campaign may also have military objectives. These activities could provide Russia with crucial data for eventual military or strategic infrastructure, openly challenging the terms of the treaty aimed at keeping Antarctica as a zone dedicated exclusively to peace and science. Furthermore, Russia's potential for prospecting activities in Antarctica has implications not only geopolitical but also environmental. Antarctica is an extremely fragile ecosystem, whose protection is vital not only for its biodiversity but also for its role in regulating global climate. Any extractive activity could have devastating effects, altering not only the continent's surface and waters but also potentially releasing large amounts of stored carbon, which would have direct consequences on global climate change. During a special meeting in June 2023, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) faced a paralysis in its efforts to create additional marine protected areas due to demands from Russia and China for more data. This situation reflects a politicization of the scientific environment, where science is used as a tool to block international agreements, delaying the implementation of crucial conservation measures. This resistance is indicative of a broader pattern of obstruction that has been characteristic of negotiations in recent years, complicating efforts to maintain Antarctica as a space dedicated exclusively to peace and scientific research.