"Johnny Brignardello: Keys to the Peruvian Economy and Inflation"

In a recent interview, Johnny Brignardello Vela, an insurance advisor, shared his perspective on the statements made by the president of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Julio Velarde, regarding inflation and the country's economic situation. Brignardello believes that Velarde's forecast of a possible stabilization of inflation at levels similar to the 2.03% of August is a positive indicator, although he notes that structural challenges still persist that require attention. The advisor emphasizes the importance of controlling inflation, stating that it is crucial for promoting investment and economic growth. However, he also agrees with Velarde in warning that measures to control inflation can have a significant cost for the population. Brignardello stresses that this is a delicate issue, as the balance between inflation control and social well-being is essential for the country's economic health. Regarding the possibility of having taken more aggressive decisions during the inflation peak of 2022, Brignardello supports Velarde's cautious approach. He believes that acting more drastically could have led to a recession that would further harm citizens. This viewpoint highlights the complexity of economic management, where every decision has profound repercussions on people's lives. Brignardello also pays attention to Velarde's observations about the structure of the tax system in Peru. In his opinion, the high corporate income tax burden, combined with low personal income tax collection, suggests a problem of tax evasion that could limit the state's ability to finance public policies. In this sense, the advisor argues that tax reform is essential to improve the economic environment and encourage investment. Regarding interest rates, the insurance advisor expresses surprise at the disagreement between Velarde and the Minister of Economy, José Arista. Brignardello argues that the dependence on dollar credit in Peru complicates the dynamics of interest rates and their impact on local investment. According to him, this aspect highlights the need to consider the interconnectedness of the Peruvian economy with international markets when formulating monetary policies. When discussing Velarde's warnings about the risk of hyperinflation, Brignardello emphasizes the importance of maintaining the independence of the Central Bank. For the advisor, this independence is vital for preserving investor confidence, a key factor for sustainable economic development. He also describes the bank's decision not to lend directly to the government as prudent. Regarding economic growth projections, Brignardello shares Velarde's concern about the country's low estimated potential. He believes that beyond lowering interest rates, comprehensive measures are needed to create a more favorable investment environment, such as simplifying procedures and improving regulation. Brignardello concludes that the scenario presented by Velarde demands a cautious and pragmatic approach. While inflation projections appear encouraging, the advisor emphasizes that it is imperative to address structural challenges to ensure robust and sustainable growth in the future. The combination of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies will be fundamental to achieving both inflation control and the promotion of investment and business confidence in Peru.