2024: A Year of Conflict and Hope in a Polarized World

Throughout 2024, the world has witnessed a landscape of suffering and conflict, marking a year in which wars have left an indelible mark on three continents. While global attention has focused on the devastating fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, the situation in Sudan has emerged as one of the deadliest, casting a veil of despair over the region. The violence in these areas has not only claimed lives but also destabilized entire communities, highlighting the fragility of peace in an increasingly polarized world. The climate crisis has complemented this grim panorama, with storms, floods, and wildfires ravaging homes and leaving a trail of desolation in their wake. As natural disasters intensify, rivalry among nations, particularly between those aligned with China and those supporting the U.S.-led Western alliance, has sharpened. This confrontation has been exacerbated by the election of a new president in the United States, whose commitment to international allies has been called into question, further fueling global uncertainty. The perception that the multilateral order established after World War II is in crisis has become more palpable. Many governments seem to act under the premise that might justifies their actions, while autocratic regimes disregard international norms. In this context, Western powers are accused of hypocrisy and double standards, complicating the international landscape even further. However, despite the shadows looming over the year, 2024 has also brought glimmers of hope. Capitalist democracies, including the United States, have shown remarkable resilience in the face of adversity, revealing the inherent weaknesses of autocracies, such as in the case of China. This contrast underscores that while the path toward a new world order is uncertain, the elections and political changes that have taken place throughout the year may indicate a more promising future. Elections in 76 countries, representing more than half of the world's population, have been a clear testament to the vitality of democracy. Although not all elections have been fair, such as those in Russia and Venezuela, political change in places like the United Kingdom and India has demonstrated that citizens are willing to exercise their voice to challenge those in power. The recent loss of power by the African National Congress in South Africa and the forced coalition of Modi in India are examples of how elections can be tools to prevent disastrous outcomes. In the United States, Donald Trump's victory at the beginning of the year was a pivotal moment, allowing the country to avoid a potential outbreak of electoral violence. The participation of African American and Hispanic voters in his support suggests a shift in political dynamics, reflecting a desire to address issues affecting everyday life, beyond identity politics. This phenomenon could mark a change in the evolution of American politics, which may have repercussions for the country's future. The U.S. economy has shown signs of resilience, growing at a rate three times greater than that of the other G7 countries since 2020. In this context, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant gains, highlighting the private sector's ability to innovate and attract investment. Despite global challenges, the United States has remained at the forefront of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, reinforcing its economic and political position on the global stage. In contrast, China's economic situation has begun to be questioned, with an authoritarian model that has been criticized for its inability to adapt to market realities. President Xi Jinping's refusal to adopt stimulus policies for consumption and his focus on rivalry with the United States have left his economy on a path of deceleration that appears to be more than just a cyclical downturn. The crisis in Russia reflects the fragility of authoritarianism. Although the country has achieved some advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, these have been costly and slow, exacerbating the internal situation. Inflation and poor resource management have affected the country's stability, and the prospect of a leadership change seems distant. The lessons from Syria, where Iranian support has been unsustainable in the face of internal weakness, show that attempts to maintain power through force often end up being unsustainable. As challenges for democracies in Europe become evident, it is clear that instability and the inability to respond to Russian aggression threaten their future. If Europe fails to strengthen its position, the repercussions will be felt in the United States, where Trump's politics could be a double-edged sword. The possibility that his administration may forge peaceful relations or, conversely, opt for divisive policies will create uncertainty in an already complicated global context. Nevertheless, despite these challenges, 2024 has demonstrated that democracies are capable of adapting and evolving. The political process, although complicated, continues to be a source of strength. The ability of citizens to remove ineffective leaders and reject outdated ideas offers a path toward a future where human progress can flourish. As the world moves toward 2025, the combination of technological and political changes promises to open new opportunities, and democracies must be prepared to seize them.