2024: A Year of Crisis, Autocracy, and the Fragile Promise of International Law

As the tumultuous year of 2024 draws to a close, the world finds itself grappling with a series of unprecedented events that have reshaped the landscape of international relations, governance, and political dynamics. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has highlighted the fragile nature of international law, while the specter of democratic backsliding looms large in various countries, including the United States. The complexities of international law have come to the forefront, revealing its limitations in the face of geopolitical realities. Many have anticipated that international law would act as a stabilizing force, a "rules-based order" that transcends national interests. However, as Kate Cronin-Furman articulates in her influential work "Hypocrisy and Human Rights," the harsh truth is that international law often falls short of its idealistic promises. Rather than serving as an effective tool for protecting civilians in conflict zones, it frequently exposes the hypocrisy of powerful nations that fail to hold aggressors accountable. Cronin-Furman’s analysis reminds us that while international law may impose some reputational costs on violators, it does not offer a foolproof solution to the suffering of innocents caught in the crossfire. Meanwhile, the rise of autocratic governance around the globe has been another concerning trend. The erosion of democracy is not merely a phenomenon of distant lands; it is increasingly a reality in established democracies as well. The sobering insights from "How to Save a Constitutional Democracy" by Tom Ginsburg and Aziz Huq reveal the systematic strategies employed by autocrats to dismantle democratic frameworks from within. The United States, once thought to be impervious to such threats, is now facing discussions around constitutional amendments that could dramatically reshape its governance. Such developments underscore the vulnerability of democracies, particularly in times of political polarization and unrest. Complementing this conversation is Larry Bartels’ "Democracy Erodes from the Top," which analyzes voter behavior and the conditions that allow authoritarian figures to gain power. Bartels finds that it is often not a desire for authoritarianism that propels voters toward autocrats, but rather the discrediting of opposition parties or moments of economic stability that these leaders exploit. This nuanced understanding sheds light on how democratic institutions can subtly yet decisively erode under the guise of popular support. Additionally, the intricacies of political maneuvering echo the principles of game theory, which has emerged as a crucial framework for deciphering the chaos of contemporary politics. The interplay of strategic decision-making can be likened to the hilarious yet insightful dynamics in pop culture, such as the "Friends" episode where characters engage in escalating pranks. Thomas Schelling's foundational texts, alongside Michael Chwe's "Jane Austen, Game Theorist," illustrate how both nations and individuals navigate their choices based on the anticipated actions of others. This lens not only provides clarity in understanding the tangled web of international relations but also highlights the fundamental human behaviors that underlie political interactions. As we reflect on the events of 2024, it becomes apparent that the challenges we face are deeply intertwined, with international law, democratic integrity, and strategic behaviors all playing significant roles in shaping our world. While the chaotic nature of this year may seem overwhelming, the insights gleaned from these essential texts offer pathways to understanding and navigating the future. As we approach 2025, it is imperative to remain engaged with these issues, fostering a commitment to democratic values, accountability, and the pursuit of a more just international order.