The legacy of AMLO in Pemex: between promises of sovereignty and financial crisis.

In the context of the transition of administration in Mexico, the legacy of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador regarding Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) presents itself as a puzzle of promises and realities. With less than 40 days until the end of his term, the dream of energy sovereignty has been overshadowed by a complicated financial landscape. Despite capital injections exceeding one trillion pesos, Pemex not only maintains a financial liability of over 99 billion dollars, but also faces declining production that barely reaches 1.7 million barrels per day. The new director of Pemex, Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, will take the lead in an extremely delicate context. With over 40 years of experience in the energy sector, Rodríguez Padilla faces the monumental challenge of restructuring a company that remains the most indebted in the world. Despite a slight decrease in debt from 105 billion dollars in 2018, financial commitments continue to be urgent, with payments of 4.8 billion dollars due before the end of the year and an additional 7.1 billion accumulating for 2025. Since the beginning of his administration, López Obrador had promised a comprehensive rescue for Pemex, aiming to reverse its production decline and ensure the country’s energy self-sufficiency. However, the cost of flagship projects like the Dos Bocas refinery has multiplied its original budget, reaching 16 billion dollars. In turn, the company's inability to achieve positive results has led to losses of 256 billion pesos in the second quarter of the year, reflecting a deterioration in its operations. Questions about the effectiveness of the policies implemented during this administration have not been long in coming. Although the government has extended tax exemptions for Pemex, which represents a temporary relief, the relationship between the company and its recovery capacity remains a topic of debate. Experts like Miriam Grunstein have pointed out that, while failures were identified in Enrique Peña Nieto's energy reform, the solutions proposed in the current administration have not been sufficient to ensure Pemex's stability. The lack of a clear strategy to attract private investment following the cancellation of partnerships with external companies has left the oil company in a vulnerable position. While there has been a recent opening towards collaboration with the private sector, it remains to be seen how these relationships will be structured in Claudia Sheinbaum's upcoming administration. The uncertainty surrounding Pemex's future could impact not only its financial viability but also the country's energy landscape. According to Fitch Ratings, Pemex and Petrobras are at radically opposite extremes in terms of profitability. While Petrobras has managed to maintain a robust cash flow, Pemex faces a liquidity crisis with imminent payments that jeopardize its operations. These challenges are not merely numerical; they reflect the urgent need for a restructuring that allows the company to return to a path of growth. The outlook becomes darker when considering that Pemex’s current production is below figures recorded more than a decade ago and far from historical production peaks. With the goal of reaching at least 1.8 million barrels per day, the new leadership of Pemex will need to act quickly to reverse the trend and ensure the self-sufficiency of its refineries. The pressure on Rodríguez Padilla will be intense, not only due to the financial situation facing Pemex but also because of the expectations of the new administration. The promise of energy sovereignty may depend on the decisions made in the coming months. The pressure from creditors and the need for a renewed approach to exploration and production will be key on his agenda. In this context, Rodríguez Padilla's profile as an academic with deep knowledge of the energy sector becomes a source of hope. However, the task ahead of him is monumental. Effective management of debt and the ability to implement significant changes in Pemex’s operations will be essential to change the company's course and meet the expectations of citizens and the government. As López Obrador's administration comes to a close, Pemex's fate remains in a limbo of uncertainty. The transition to new leadership could mark a turning point, but the path to recovery will be arduous and will require bold and strategic decisions to emerge from the labyrinth of debt that has constrained the company in recent years. The history of Pemex, energy sovereignty, and Mexico's energy future are intertwined at a critical crossroads.