The increase in electricity demand in Spain is approaching pre-crisis levels energetically.

The recent demand for electricity in Spain has reached levels close to those recorded before the energy crisis, a phenomenon that continues to surprise analysts and consumers alike. According to the latest figures provided by Red Eléctrica de España (REE), August has shown a nearly 3% adjusted growth in electricity demand, a figure that, corrected for weather and calendar factors, reflects a trend that contrasts with the uncertainty experienced in previous years. This increase does not seem affected by the price escalation, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and the dynamics of the energy market. The data presented is compelling: so far, more than 18.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity have been consumed this month, approaching the figures seen before the pandemic and, notably, before the energy crisis that hit Europe in 2021 and 2022. Pedro Cantuel, an energy analyst at the Ignis group, points out that this unexpectedly positive result could mean that total electricity demand in August is around 21 TWh, which would represent the best figure since 2019. One of the reasons that could be behind this rebound is the levels of tourism, which have returned strongly this year. The increased influx of visitors means that hotels and restaurants are operating at maximum capacity, leading to a significant increase in electricity consumption. Additionally, the industrial sector, which has moved past the restrictions imposed by the energy crisis, is also showing signs of recovery. Sectors such as metallurgy and chemicals, which already showed growth in July, seem to be contributing to this trend. However, it is worth noting that, despite these encouraging figures in August, the accumulated electricity consumption so far in 2023 still shows moderate growth. With a year-on-year increase of only eight tenths in the gross reading and 1.2 percentage points in adjusted figures, total recovery remains a long-term goal. Cantuel warns that, although we are still far from pre-crisis levels in cumulative terms, the demand behavior in August could signal the beginning of a period of expansion anticipated by the sector. An additional factor that cannot be overlooked is self-consumption, which has gained ground in recent years. Although there has been a slowdown in its recent growth, the increase in solar panel installations in homes and businesses has begun to reduce dependence on the conventional electricity grid. This phenomenon could be contributing to the electricity demand figures not fully reflecting reality, as self-consumption decreases the need for energy from the grid. If self-consumption were taken into account, it is likely that electricity demand in August would have reached levels even higher than those in the pre-crisis phase. This represents a significant change, given that during the peak phase of the crisis, both households and industries had to make drastic adjustments to cope with the exorbitant electricity prices. The growth in demand also occurs in a context where renewable production is on the rise, especially during peak daylight hours. This electrification is not only cleaner from an environmental standpoint but also more economical in operational terms. For example, the cost of using an electric car is notably lower than that of a combustion engine vehicle, highlighting the advantage of adopting cleaner and more efficient technologies. In the context of the energy transition, it is relevant that in the first eight months of the year, 60% of the electricity consumed in Spain comes from renewable sources and that more than 80% is emission-free when including nuclear energy. However, the country still faces the challenge of reducing its dependence on fossil sources, such as oil and gas, which represent a considerable part of total energy consumption. The path toward greater environmental sustainability and a more balanced trade is contingent upon reducing this dependence. In this regard, it will be essential for energy policies to align with decarbonization objectives and continue investing in renewable energies and the modernization of electrical infrastructure. The increasing trend in electricity demand could indicate that recovery is underway, but it is crucial to maintain a clear focus on sustainability and energy efficiency in the coming years.