Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello Vela, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The information provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reveals a mixed picture of the Peruvian economy in mid-2024. In June, national production grew a modest 0.21% compared to the same month the previous year. Despite this growth, several economic sectors faced significant challenges that highlight the complexity of the country's productive environment. The INEI report emphasizes that an important factor affecting the performance of numerous sectors was the reduction in working days, as June 7 was a national holiday, whereas in 2023, that day was a working day. However, the first half of the year showed more robust growth, with a 2.49% increase in productive activity, suggesting that although there are contractions in certain sectors, the economy as a whole has performed relatively positively so far this year. The agricultural sector, in particular, showed worrying signs. Production fell by 1.62%, driven by a notable decrease in the agricultural subsector, which contracted by 3.06%. This decline was attributed to a reduction in the area planted with key crops such as olives, cotton, and potatoes, which experienced production drops of up to 79.9%. In contrast, the livestock subsector showed slight growth of 1.80%, thanks to an increase in the production of pork, poultry, and fresh milk. In the fishing sector, the numbers are surprising. Fish production grew a remarkable 56.77%, mainly driven by increased extraction of marine species, such as anchovy. This figure starkly contrasts with export figures, as the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) reported that non-traditional fish exports plummeted an alarming 43.26% between January and May 2024. These data suggest that, although domestic production for consumption has increased, the outlook in international markets is discouraging. Mining and hydrocarbons faced a worse situation, with a decline of 7.47%, affected by a drop in the production of metals such as zinc and copper. Despite some increases in the production of molybdenum and silver, the overall trend in this sector is concerning, especially for an economy that relies heavily on exports of natural resources. The construction sector also showed signs of weakness, contracting by 2.40%, impacted by a decline in domestic cement consumption. Nevertheless, there was growth in the physical advancement of public works, which could indicate a shift in the sector's dynamics towards state projects. In contrast, commerce exhibited positive growth of 2.28%, driven by an increase in wholesale sales of textiles and machinery. This sector, along with Accommodation and Restaurants, which grew by 4.66%, indicates that there are areas of the economy evolving favorably, possibly due to increased demand following the easing of pandemic restrictions. In the services sector, telecommunications and other information services experienced growth of 3.21%, reflecting greater demand for internet and television services. This appears to be a reflection of the digital transformation that has accelerated how businesses and citizens interact and consume. Finally, the Business Services sector also showed an increase, which could indicate that companies are beginning to invest in services that help them adapt to a changing environment. This type of growth is encouraging and suggests that despite the challenges, there is an openness to innovation and improvement in efficiency. As the country moves forward in the remainder of the year, the combination of growing and contracting sectors suggests that a more coherent strategy is needed to address weaknesses and capitalize on opportunities. The INEI data serve as a call to action for both the public and private sectors to focus on solutions that promote sustainable and balanced growth.