Challenges and Opportunities in the Economy: Reflections from August 10th

August 10 is a date that has marked various stages in the economy of our country over the years. This time, reflections on the commercial sector lead us to a context that, while repetitive, offers different nuances each year. This year, the outlook suggests a prolonged period of sales that, although beneficial for consumers, poses significant challenges to companies' profit margins. Despite the difficulties faced by the sector in the first six months of the year, with a notable drop in sales, the situation seems to be starting to change. July marked a turning point, driven by the Independence Day campaign, which succeeded in attracting consumers to shopping malls and markets, revitalizing a market that appeared stagnant. This recovery suggests that the strategy of discounts and promotions could be key to drawing shoppers back in. However, this strategy is not without risks. The decision to extend promotions throughout the year could significantly impact companies' profit margins. Although sales may increase in volume, the act of lowering prices means that, fundamentally, companies could be sacrificing part of their short-term profitability. This dilemma confronts many merchants: is it preferable to maintain high prices and risk losing sales, or to lower prices and ensure a steady income flow at the expense of profitability? The landscape becomes even more complicated when considering the decline in consumer confidence. While companies show greater confidence in their ability to recover, consumer perception remains cautious. Families have adjusted to a new normal, where spending is increasingly considered and often conditioned by economic uncertainty. This creates an environment where offers may be seen as a temporary relief, but not necessarily as a sign of economic stability. In the context of credit, the situation is also not very encouraging. In 2009, concerns were raised about the lack of response from the banking system regarding the reduction of interest rates, which affected micro and small enterprises. This year, although interest rates have fluctuated, small and micro enterprises continue to face increasing delinquency in payments. This fact suggests that, despite changes in monetary policies, the benefits have yet to reach the most vulnerable segments of the economy. In analyzing economic projections, moderate growth is observed. According to Credicorp Capital, the economy would grow by just 1.1%, while other entities dare to be even more pessimistic, with growth projections of up to 0.8%. This outlook is influenced by external factors, such as slower growth in China and monetary policy decisions in the United States, which continue to impact the local economy. In light of this scenario, it is essential for both consumers and businesses to adapt. Merchants must find a balance between offering competitive prices and maintaining sustainable profitability. At the same time, consumers must be aware of the savings opportunities that arise, but also of the need to approach their spending with caution. In summary, August 10 serves as a reminder of how the economy can fluctuate over time. Lessons from the past, such as those from 2009, teach us that while offers and promotions may provide relief, the underlying problems of the economy require constant attention. As the commercial sector moves toward the end of the year, it will be crucial to observe how these dynamics unfold and what the real impact will be on the economic recovery that we all hope for.