Colombia faces a gas crisis: alarming projections for 2025.

Colombia finds itself at a critical crossroads regarding its natural gas supply, a resource that has been fundamental for the country's energy development over the past few decades. With the approach of 2025, projections indicate that the country could face a deficit of between 5% and 10% in its internal gas supply, an outcome that has been brewing over the last three administrations. For nearly half a century, Colombia has managed to meet 70% of its domestic demand through national production, relying on the remaining 30% from imports from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the current situation requires a thorough review of the policies and strategies in the energy sector. Engineer Jorge Pineda has indicated that, despite alarming headlines, the situation is not as desperate as it may seem. According to his analysis, the projected deficit is due to contractual gaps rather than a lack of operational capacity in gas production. However, this gap has generated growing concern, as current regulations stipulate that continuous gas supply must be guaranteed and that shortages should not be a worry on the country's energy horizon. Consultant Daisy Cerquera offers a critical perspective on the evolution of the sector, noting that although supply plans have been developed and attempts have been made to tender for the construction of a regasification plant on the Pacific coast, the results have been fruitless. "The calls for these plants went unanswered," Cerquera explains, warning that the capacity to implement these initiatives has been notably deficient. The lack of a solid regulatory framework has become a recurring theme in debates about energy supply. The Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG), which should act as a technical entity independent of the Government, has been in a state of interim leadership for two years, paralyzing important gas import projects and contributing to uncertainty in the sector. Pineda and other experts have pointed out that the lack of appointments in this commission is unacceptable, and President Gustavo Petro has faced criticism for his inability to formalize these positions. Politically, President Petro has defended his stance on sector regulation, arguing that greater state control over public services is needed. In his statements, he has questioned the formula used to set tariffs, suggesting that it has favored a small group of companies at the expense of the Colombian population's welfare. His comments have generated tension and debate surrounding the profitability of the energy sector, which, according to him, has been exorbitant. As the Government seeks alternatives to face the imminent gas crisis, options such as importing gas from Venezuela have been mentioned. However, the political difficulties in the neighboring country and the economic sanctions imposed by the United States have made this option less optimistic. The situation is further complicated by the fact that future projections do not guarantee a quick or effective solution to the supply problem. The interest of several foreign companies in exporting gas to Colombia offers a glimmer of hope amid the uncertainty, but the lack of clarity in supply policy and limited national exploration capacity make the situation critical. According to Pineda, the economic impact of this crisis will be considerable, especially in regions that are already facing gas contracting deficits. This translates not only into higher gas bills but also into additional pressure on households and industry. The lack of clarity regarding the Ministry of Mines and Energy's strategy for gas supply has raised concerns among experts. With time running against them, it is perceived that the situation could worsen even more starting in 2026, when gas reserves are expected to continue declining and the need for effective solutions becomes even more urgent. The possibility of rationing, which would primarily impact the industrial sector, presents a frightening scenario that is hoped will not come to fruition. In conclusion, Colombia faces a significant challenge in its energy sector, with a natural gas deficit that could compromise its self-sufficiency. The decisions made in the coming months will be crucial to prevent this situation from turning into a supply crisis. With recommendations ranging from modernizing infrastructure to reviewing contracts and regulations, the future of gas in Colombia depends on immediate and coordinated action among the Government, the private sector, and regulatory bodies. The situation is complex, but there is still room for intervention and strategic planning that could save Colombia from an imminent shortage.