Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello Vela, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The recent decline of the Mexican peso has generated an atmosphere of uncertainty in the markets, with Monday being a particularly critical day. The exchange rate exceeded the barrier of 20 units per dollar, marking its largest depreciation in the last two years. In this context, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador offered a message of confidence, stating that "we can endure a little longer" and downplaying concerns about the global economic situation that has impacted the national currency. López Obrador acknowledged that the global economic environment is unstable, pointing to the recent drop in the Japanese stock market and the negative job creation data from the United States. During a press conference, the president emphasized that although the peso had suffered a loss, it was not "very significant." His team presented graphs showing the performance of the Dow Jones index and the peso's exchange rate, insisting that the Mexican currency has remained relatively stable compared to the past. The president underscored that Mexico has strengthened its position as a trading partner of the United States, which has benefited the Mexican economy. However, he also admitted that a slowdown in the U.S. economy could have repercussions for the country, while noting that this phenomenon affects the global level. His optimism is based on the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Mexico, which amount to $221.725 billion, a cushion expected to help face external shocks. López Obrador also emphasized that, unlike previous administrations, the currency has not depreciated during his tenure. Citing statistics from Bloomberg, he stated that the peso has appreciated by 5.8% since he took office until August of this year, a figure that contrasts with the recent fluctuations of the exchange rate. "This shows that our economic strategy has worked," he asserted, reinforcing his narrative of responsible management of the country’s finances. However, there are those who view the situation critically. Analyst Gabriela Siller pointed out that the peso has been one of the most depreciated currencies this year, with a decline of 15.4%. Additionally, in the last session, the currency suffered a drop of 1.19%. This has raised concerns about the government's ability to manage the economic situation, especially in a context where public debt is projected to reach 48.6% of GDP by the end of López Obrador's term. Financial experts are alert to the possibility that the collapse of the Japanese market, along with instability in the Middle East and changes in U.S. monetary policy, could negatively impact the Mexican economy. These factors could restrict the flow of foreign currency and thus affect the strength of the peso. The president's confidence in foreign exchange reserves and in control mechanisms to cushion the impact has been put to the test, as the environment becomes increasingly uncertain. Meanwhile, attention is focused on the presidential succession, as Claudia Sheinbaum will assume office on October 1. Expectations are high, and the new administration will face significant economic challenges. Sheinbaum's ability to manage the economy and the stability of the peso will be crucial elements of her mandate. The investment climate is at stake, and the government's response to the financial crisis will be decisive in maintaining investor confidence. Despite López Obrador's optimistic rhetoric, the tangible impact of the economic situation on citizens' daily lives is undeniable. Many families will already feel the effects of a depreciated currency in their pockets, which could lead to an increase in the cost of living. At the end of the day, the Mexican economy faces a crossroads. The decisions made by both the current government and the incoming administration will be critical for the country’s financial stability. The resilience proclaimed by López Obrador will be tested in this complex landscape, and the outcome of this story is yet to be written. Trust in the measures implemented and in the country's ability to adapt to external circumstances will be fundamental in the coming months.