Expectations and Scenarios in Venezuela Amid Potential Transition

The widespread expectation that the presidential candidate of the majority opposition, Edmundo González Urrutia, will win the election on July 28, raises scenarios that are linked to a potential political transition in Venezuela as has not occurred in the last 25 years. Just days away from the most challenging presidential election in recent years for the government of Nicolás Maduro and the unified opposition, now led by María Corina Machado and González Urrutia, there are signs pointing to a hypothetical transition process based on the eventual results of the July 28 elections, according to political analysts consulted by El Pitazo. Amid an electoral process that is not proceeding normally, marked by advantages and political persecution by the government, the director of the Center for Political Studies and Government at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (Cepyg-UCAB), Benigno Alarcón, outlines four common elements in transition processes analyzed worldwide in recent years that are a reality in Venezuela, as reflected in polls and public opinion studies. "First, an election that implies the departure from power of those who control it. Second, a unified opposition around a leadership. Third, people being mobilized around that leadership to produce a change. Fourth, international pressure, which we have not at the levels of 2019, but it exists and is increasing," detailed Alarcón. There is a fifth element that, according to Alarcón, has to do with internal fractures that can occur in authoritarian regimes - like that of Venezuela - in situations similar to what the government may face in the event of the results of July 28. "The fifth element, which we still do not see clearly, but which may exist, has to do with internal fractures. That is seen on election day or afterwards, it is rare to see it before. We could witness an institutional breakdown that we will not see until election day," added Alarcón. If the institutional breakdown or internal fractures within the ruling coalition are not yet evident, it is in terms of popular support, which is eroded to the point where the government is experiencing its worst political and electoral moment since 2012. The 21 percentage point gap between González Urrutia's candidacy and Maduro, according to polls and public opinion studies, poses greater challenges with increasingly high political costs for the Government. "The polls show a very large difference in favor of Edmundo González. An irreversible difference and, in a way, I am beginning to notice a collapse in what remains of Chavismo, demoralized people who see that the situation is heading in another direction, and that leaves Maduro without operational capacity to impose a coup: to claim victory on the 28th, when the polls show a very large difference," highlights the political scientist and expert in public opinion, José Vicente Carrasquero. As the date of the presidential election approaches, both internal and external pressure increases. Maduro accuses "imperialism" of turning the electoral campaign in Venezuela into a global issue; however, the government - with irregularities and actions outside the law - has raised alarms inside and outside the country. "This is the only election held in the region with all the irregularities we have seen and that has this aura of needing surveillance, of needing measures regarding what is happening in the country. We are facing an atypical electoral process in the region," added Carrasquero. Regional ideological allies of the government such as the presidents of Brazil and Colombia, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, respectively, do not shy away from their concern regarding the Venezuelan electoral context and what the government is willing to do. "Petro and Lula are concerned about the results, as well as the U.S., because a possible continuation of Maduro in power would be a geopolitical catastrophe due to migration, hence the interest of the rest of the countries for Maduro to realize that he is not operating in a vacuum and that there is observation around," added Carrasquero. Two weeks ago, Lula expressed his wish for the elections in Venezuela to "proceed peacefully and for the results to be recognized by all." Petro, on the other hand, once again raised the need for an agreement with guarantees for the opposition and respect for the results of the presidential election. In Venezuela, as the days pass and the electoral campaign continues with political persecution and irregularities by the government, as well as increased pressure on the Maduro government, the government's attempts to have an election where it can control the results or the consequences of the final numbers of the election are becoming evident, according to Alarcón. "In reality, what will characterize this process will be high participation that could exceed 70%, with the expectation that the opposition will win and the government will lose, and that the government will not respect the result. Those are the scenarios," added the director of Cepyg-UCAB. In January 1958, Venezuela underwent a transition by rupture, a type of political change that does not occur through negotiation, as explained by Alarcón, but is generated by events such as a coup d'état. "That could happen in Venezuela," says Alarcón. However, the director of Cepyg-UCAB points out that the current circumstances in Venezuela indicate that the transition that could occur after July 28 will be one that arises from a mix of conflict and negotiation. "It is a transition in which the Government realizes that it cannot win and negotiates its exit while maintaining power spaces that guarantee its survival. In Venezuela, there will not be a solely negotiated transition because the Government shows no signs of wanting to negotiate and bets on being able to remain in power by hook or by crook," explains Alarcón. Both González Urrutia and Machado have expressed their willingness to negotiate amid the conflict and have emphasized the importance of the government's power circle negotiating an orderly and peaceful transition. No scenario so far implies an easy solution for the Government, according to Carrasquero and Alarcón. In any authoritarian regime, ultimately facing the beginning of a transition, there is a desire to maintain what are known as authoritarian enclaves, domains of power, and guarantees. The challenge for the opposition lies in defining, among other things, what is most beneficial for the transition amid the conflict and the demands of a coalition that, if it acknowledges its defeat, will persist in its demands. "The transition to democracy will be a complex matter. I estimate that Maduro will step down from power after July. The government will be in the hands of a more or less neutral vice presidency, there will be conversations from the Executive point of view, but it is worth noting that Chavismo will have one more year in the National Assembly, and hopefully they will understand that they will have to facilitate processes for the transition," added Carrasquero. Forcing the beginning of a transition is not simple, and the Venezuelan opposition knows this from all the failures in recent years. However, if a transition through electoral means were to occur in Venezuela, the complexity would also lie in its consolidation and operation. "The difficulty of a transition comes after it begins. Achieving it is complex. Transitions sometimes occur due to unforeseeable events. Some governments fail in their attempts to consolidate the transition, as happened in Nicaragua, with Violeta Chamorro, and in Egypt, for example," emphasizes Alarcón. In that context, what situations will need to be handled with care, and what risks will need to be addressed in the face of a transitional government? "Maintaining a transitional government and consolidating democracy is not a short-term process, and people demand a lot from that new government in a short time. Additionally, those leaving the government, actors who have resources and power, wait for signs of weakness to act. The part that will not be easy is consolidating a transition process and keeping it functioning," added Alarcón. The role of the military establishment, which is currently aligned with a political faction, outside of what the Constitution establishes, will be crucial, according to Carrasquero. "When talking about transition, the first thing to consider is the military sector, with the role assigned by the Constitution: to serve the people. Remember that on July 28, it's not about one side winning and the other losing, but the people expressing an opinion and indicating the direction in which the country should be managed," emphasized the political scientist. Alarcón highlights three crucial aspects that require attention amidst the demands of a transitional government. "Firstly, the state's capacity and responses to the population's demands. Secondly, a rule of law that enjoys legitimacy to have a legal framework that supports the entire process, including the judicial system and even amending constitutional norms. And thirdly, rebuilding the framework that supports a democracy: electoral processes, freedom of expression, association, among other things," detailed Alarcón. A transversal element in a hypothetical transitional government will be related to human rights and justice, especially because in authoritarian regimes, one of the main demands from those in power circles involves judicial guarantees. In addition to the situation in Venezuela, there is an additional significant process: the case advancing in the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the investigation conducted by the ICC Prosecutor's Office for crimes against humanity. "Undoubtedly, there will be difficulties in the transition process. Transitional justice needs to be addressed. The accusations of crimes against humanity, corruption cases, are elements that stand out and represent a significant challenge for those who will lead the entire process," highlighted Carrasquero. There is consensus that processes related to justice and human rights violations are managed during transition periods with a transitional justice system, and the use of amnesty is becoming less common, especially considering the pillars of a transitional justice framework: historical memory, truth, victim reparation, and non-repetition. Venezuela faces its most challenging political and electoral test in recent decades, with the consequences and implications that will arise from July 28. Expectations and uncertainty blend together, but there are also certainties that mark the days ahead. "People have two very clear scenarios: that Edmundo González will win the election and that the Government will do everything possible to remain in power," concluded Alarcón.