The Mexican peso is recovering against the dollar, but uncertainty persists.

The Mexican peso has managed to regain ground against the dollar after two consecutive days of losses. However, uncertainty and risk aversion continue to be present in the financial markets, largely due to the increasing possibilities of former President Donald Trump returning to the presidency of the United States. At the opening of the session, the exchange rate was at 17.8320 pesos per dollar, representing an appreciation of 0.82% compared to the previous day's closing rate reported by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This recovery of the Mexican peso was overshadowed by the persistent concern regarding Trump's influence on the Mexican economy in the event of a potential re-election. Analysts at Monex pointed out that Trump's extremist comments have contributed to increasing uncertainty about Mexico's economic future, should the former president win the scheduled elections in November. The anti-immigrant and protectionist rhetoric of the Republican president has caused unease in international financial markets. Trump's acceptance speech as the Republican Party's candidate nominee, which took place the previous night, has kept investors on edge. Meanwhile, there are rumors that his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, may be considering withdrawing from the electoral race, adding an additional element of uncertainty to the American political landscape. During his speech, Trump mentioned Mexico without launching direct attacks on the country, focusing on campaign promises such as restricting illegal immigration and imposing tariffs as a measure to encourage investment in the United States, as reported by Banco Base. The possibility of imposing 200% tariffs on Chinese vehicles manufactured in Mexico entering the U.S. market has also raised concerns. Furthermore, the drop in the CrowdStrike system has exacerbated risk aversion in global financial markets, impacting investors' perception of emerging assets such as the Mexican peso. The political uncertainty in the United States adds to the economic challenges faced by Mexico amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, investors and analysts remain vigilant about political developments in the United States and their potential impact on the Mexican economy. Currency market volatility and uncertainty surrounding the bilateral relationship between both countries continue to be determining factors for the evolution of the peso-dollar exchange rate in the coming weeks.