Stable Global Growth Prospects: Analysis by the IMF without quotation marks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently presented its World Economic Outlook Update report, in which a global economic growth of 3.2% is projected for the year 2024 and 3.3% for the year 2025. These figures remain in line with the forecasts made in April of this year, although it is noted that differences in economic activity dynamics have reduced the divergence between economies as they adjust to their potential. According to the report, global activity and international trade have strengthened at the beginning of this year, with a notable boost in exports from Asia, especially in the technology sector. However, negative surprises have been recorded in the growth of countries like Japan and the United States, due to factors such as moderation in consumption and temporary disruptions in the supply chain. In the case of the United States, a deceleration in growth has been observed, attributed to the decrease in consumption and the negative contribution of net trade. On the other hand, signs of economic recovery have materialized in Europe, driven mainly by activity in the services sector. In China, growth has been driven by domestic consumption and a temporary increase in exports. Regarding inflation, it is highlighted that service price inflation is weighing down disinflation and complicating the normalization of monetary policy. A scenario of higher interest rates is foreseen amid trade tensions and uncertainty regarding policies. The report also points out that global disinflation is slowing down, with persistent service price inflation and vigorous nominal wage growth in some countries. Central banks in emerging economies continue to act cautiously by cutting rates to address external risks. In terms of advanced economies, a convergence in growth is expected in the coming quarters, with a downward revision in U.S. growth and a moderate rebound in the euro area. In Japan, a turnaround in private consumption trends is expected, while in emerging economies like China and India, an increase in activity is projected. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth projections for Brazil and Mexico have been revised downwards for 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2025 driven by factors such as reconstruction after natural disasters and domestic demand. In conclusion, the IMF report highlights a recovery in international trade and projects stable growth in the global economy for the coming years. However, challenges such as inflation and trade tensions are cautioned, which could influence global economic policy decisions.