The rise of National Rally and the political future of France

The political landscape in France is currently experiencing a moment of agitation and tension, with National Rally, the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, on the rise and on the brink of power. The history of this political formation dates back to the National Front, founded in 1972 by Jean Marie Le Pen, with the goal of uniting the French far-right. Over the years, the party has undergone significant evolution, especially under the leadership of Marine Le Pen. Thanks to a strategy of "de-demonization" and normalization, National Rally has managed to gain ground in the French political landscape, moving away from the radical and extremist image that characterized it in its beginnings. The name change to National Rally in 2018 was another step in the party's process of renewal and modernization, seeking to distance itself from the controversial image of its founder and adopt a more focused approach on issues such as immigration, national identity, and the economy. The rise of National Rally has raised concerns among traditional parties and President Emmanuel Macron, who was forced to call for early legislative elections following the historic results obtained by the far-right in the European Parliament elections. Despite efforts by the ruling party and the left to stop the advance of National Rally through a "republican front" that seeks to unify votes against the far-right, projections indicate that the party led by Marine Le Pen could obtain a majority in the second round of the legislative elections. Marine Le Pen's trajectory within the party, from her rise as vice president in 2003 to her presidency in 2011, has been marked by a gradual strategy of renewal and reform, focused on gaining acceptance and popular support through a more moderate and conciliatory discourse. The role of Jordan Bardella, a young leader of National Rally, has been crucial in the party's normalization strategy, seeking to attract sectors of French society that were previously reluctant to support the far-right. His conservative profile on social issues and more liberal stance on economic matters position him as a complementary figure to Marine Le Pen, attracting different segments of the electorate. Despite Bardella's growing popularity and potential as a presidential candidate in the future, experts point out that he currently shares similar levels of popularity with Marine Le Pen. The decision of who will be the candidate for the 2027 presidential election remains uncertain, with Marine Le Pen maintaining leadership of the party but with the possibility of a generational change on the horizon. In this context of uncertainty and political polarization in France, the rise of National Rally poses challenges and questions about the country's future and the balance of power in the political scene. The consolidation of the far-right as a relevant force in French political life calls into question the direction the country will take in the coming years and the implications this has for democracy and social cohesion.