Bolivia in crisis: attempted coup triggers internal and external uncertainty

Bolivia recently experienced one of its most critical moments in its recent history with the failed attempted coup that took place on Wednesday, June 26. Uncertainty gripped the country when a group of armed military personnel stormed Plaza Murillo and broke down the door of the Casa Grande del Pueblo in La Paz. This event led to the arrest of at least 17 people, as reported by Bolivian authorities. The international community quickly reacted to this attempt to break the constitutional and democratic order in Bolivia, strongly condemning the action that placed the South American country at the center of global attention. In this scenario, several analysts have assessed the impact that this event could have on bilateral and trade relations, particularly with neighboring countries like Peru. Political scientist José Carlos Requena highlighted the importance of events like these for neighboring countries like Peru, due to shared economic activities. However, he considered that despite the gravity of the situation in Bolivia, trade in the border area would not be significantly affected, nor would diplomatic relations, which have already experienced strains in the past. International relations expert Miguel Rodríguez Mackay pointed out that political instability in Bolivia inevitably affects foreign relations, highlighting the need for the sister country to achieve political maturity that guarantees stability internally and externally. The Bolivian political and economic context has been subject to criticisms and analyses in recent months, with internal divisions within the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), conflicts between President Luis Arce and Evo Morales, a decline in international reserves, and a shortage of dollars. Rodríguez Mackay attributed part of this situation to the lack of democratic renewal and the weight of political polarization in the country. Requena, on the other hand, emphasized that Bolivia is facing the consequences of a political past marked by populist decisions in economic matters, which have now emerged with greater force. With elections on the horizon for next year in Bolivia, political tension is escalating, with figures like businessman Samuel Doria Medina announcing his presidential intentions and internal disputes within the MAS. Speculation is rife about possible rapprochement between the factions of Evo Morales and Luis Arce, as well as the possibility of an outsider candidate emerging from the center or right. Bolivia's Minister of Government, Eduardo del Castillo, reported the arrest of 17 people, mostly military personnel, accused of instigating the attempted coup. President Luis Arce dismissed the Army's Chief Commander, Juan José Zúñiga, who led the military movement, for threatening to arrest Evo Morales. Zúñiga, in turn, claims he acted on the president's orders, which have been categorically denied. Amidst this landscape of uncertainty and tensions, Bolivia finds itself at a critical point in its recent history, where the political and economic stability of the country is under threat. The challenge for Bolivian authorities will be to restore confidence and ensure a transparent and democratic electoral process that allows the country to move towards a more prosperous and stable future.