The delicate Peruvian bet in China: opportunity or risk?

The recent visit of President Dina Boluarte to China has generated expectations and debates regarding the possible investment and cooperation opportunities that this bilateral approach could bring to Peru. Beyond criticisms about the relevance and cost of the trip, the Peruvian government has sought to strengthen relations with one of the world's leading emerging economies. However, questions arise about whether these actions represent a risky bet by putting "all eggs in the Chinese basket," particularly at a time when the economy of the Asian giant shows signs of slowdown and faces trade tensions with the United States. China, which recorded a growth of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, is experiencing uneven economic dynamism. While sectors such as industrial activity and manufacturing show improvements, consumption and the real estate sector present significant challenges. In addition, trade restrictions imposed by the United States, including tariffs on key products, exert additional pressure on the Chinese economy, which could affect expectations for projects like the Chancay port in Peru. Mercedes Araoz, former Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism, points out the importance of strengthening port logistics in Chancay to address possible negative impacts derived from international trade conflicts. She emphasizes the need for greater coordination with local and regional authorities, as well as the creation of a Special Economic Zone in the area to promote local production and mitigate external risks. Regarding bilateral trade between Peru and China, it is relevant to highlight that the Asian country is the main destination for Peruvian exports, representing 34% of the total exported in 2023. However, Peruvian exports to China have experienced a 4% decline in the first four months of 2024, mainly due to climatic and seasonal factors that have impacted key sectors such as fishing and agriculture. Rafael Zacnich, manager of economic studies at ComexPeru, highlights the difficulties faced by Peruvian exporters in the Chinese market, with significant drops in sectors such as fishing and agriculture. These data reflect the challenges that the country faces in diversifying and strengthening its exports, especially in a context of global economic uncertainty and fluctuations in demand. In this sense, the importance of seeking a balance in Peru's commercial relations and not relying exclusively on a single market like China is fundamental. Although technological cooperation and investments in infrastructure are opportunities that can be glimpsed through this approach, maintaining commercial relations with other countries like the United States and South Korea is also crucial to ensure the diversification and stability of the Peruvian economy. Finally, the reflection remains on the topics that could have been addressed during the presidential visit to China, such as the facilitation of mining projects, the attraction of investments in infrastructure and sanitation, and the development of technological initiatives. Maintaining a strategic and balanced focus on commercial and international cooperation relationships is key to ensuring sustainable and resilient growth for Peru in an increasingly volatile and uncertain global environment.