The numbers war between the IEA and OPEC over the future of oil: peak demand in sight or sustained growth?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have sparked a war of figures on the future of oil demand, generating a clash of titans that threatens not only the international energy landscape but also the financial outlook of countries and companies that depend on this industry. At the heart of the debate lies the IEA's prediction that global oil demand will peak before the end of the decade, while OPEC maintains that this growth trend will continue in the short and medium term. The report presented by the IEA forecasts an imbalance between oil supply and demand, driven by electrification and efficiency in transportation, leading to long-term low prices. According to the agency, global oil consumption will peak around the year 2029, marking a drastic shift in the oil market. However, OPEC has countered these claims, arguing that the peak demand for crude is not yet in sight and that investments in exploration and production are essential to maintain price stability. The gap between the IEA and OPEC has widened in recent times, reflecting differences in the interests of Western consumers represented by the IEA and oil-exporting countries led by OPEC. While the IEA advocates for an energy transition towards renewable sources, OPEC defends the continuity of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix, arguing that demand will continue to grow in the coming years. IEA chief Fatih Birol has tried to calm the waters, but OPEC's response has not been delayed. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has criticized the IEA's narrative as "dangerous" and questioned its projections on peak oil demand. According to Al Ghais, based on real trends, there is no decline in crude demand insight by the end of the decade, contradicting the IEA's estimates. Amidst this confrontation, analysts like Viktor Katona point out that there are still growth hotspots in global oil demand, but they acknowledge that the stances of the IEA and OPEC reflect structural biases that influence their forecasts. Meanwhile, the decision on the future of oil demand has economic and environmental implications, as a drastic decline in fossil fuel consumption would benefit consuming countries in terms of trade and environmental sustainability. This dispute between the IEA and OPEC transcends the energy sphere to become a debate on the future of the oil industry and its impact on the fight against climate change. While the IEA advocates for a transition to clean energies, OPEC defends the continuity of hydrocarbons as the basis of the global energy system. Time will tell which of the two visions will prevail and how it will affect the global economy and the environment in the coming years.