The presidential elections in the United States: Biden vs. Trump and their economic proposals

The presidential elections in the United States are approaching and everything indicates that Americans will once again have to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This electoral contest is shaping up as a unique confrontation, as it is rare to see an incumbent president vying for the position against a former president. Throughout history, this scenario has often resulted in a high probability of re-election for the sitting president, with Grover Cleveland in 1892 being the only former president to reclaim the White House. However, the elections on November 5 present notable differences compared to those four years ago. Firstly, the US economy is currently experiencing rapid growth, a pace that seemed unimaginable amidst the crisis caused by the pandemic in 2020. This economic growth has been partly driven by the continuous increase in public debt, which stands at around 34 trillion dollars, with an interest cost of approximately 650 billion. The management of this debt and the fiscal measures adopted will be crucial for the country's economic future. Both Biden and Trump have divergent visions and proposals regarding fiscal policy and regulation, which will directly impact the direction the US economy takes in the coming years. One of the most significant legacies of the Trump administration was the reduction of taxes for both individuals and businesses, along with the nomination of conservative judges to the Supreme Court. The possibility of a second Trump administration raises the prospect of making these tax cuts permanent, while Biden proposes to partially reverse them and increase taxes on high incomes, corporations, and stock buybacks. Regarding trade policy, Trump has expressed his intention to increase tariffs on China and imports from other countries, aiming to protect jobs in the US and strengthen the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, Biden has sought to keep American technology out of China's reach through sanctions and export controls. The Federal Reserve has played a key role in managing the economy, belatedly acknowledging inflationary pressures in 2021 and gradually increasing interest rates to cool prices without causing a recession. The continuity of Jerome Powell at the helm of the Fed is seen as a key factor in the fight against inflation, which still poses challenges according to the latest CPI data. In the energy sector, the US has seen record oil and gas production, and in a potential second term for Trump, further growth in this sector would be expected. His climate change denial stance could result in deregulation of renewable energies established by the Biden administration, with environmental and economic repercussions. In the financial realm, market reactions to the elections are a determining factor. A Trump victory could once again boost the stock market, supported by expectations of tax cuts and business-friendly policies. Meanwhile, Biden has focused on supporting the middle and working classes, although the positive evolution of the stock market since he took office suggests financial stability that has benefited various economic sectors. Ultimately, the choice between Biden and Trump represents a scenario where voters must weigh divergent economic and fiscal proposals, and consider the impact of each candidate on the country's financial stability and economic growth. The certainty of knowing what to expect from the contenders, in contrast to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's election four years ago, gives citizens the opportunity to make an informed decision about the future of the United States in a complex global landscape.