The economic challenges of a second term for Trump

If Donald Trump's second term were to materialize, it poses a series of uncertainties and challenges in the global economic sphere. With less than eight months until the presidential elections in the United States, the possibility of the current president's re-election is increasingly present and is already generating reactions and adjustments in various sectors globally. Under the slogans "America First" and "Make America Great Again," Trump promises greater protectionism for the US economy, which could lead to an intensification of trade wars, especially with China. This policy, already implemented during his first term, has proven to be counterproductive in the past, generating domestic inflation and retaliations that negatively impacted the US economy. The implications of this protectionism could result in lower global economic growth, affecting mainly countries that depend on mineral production and agro-export. In this sense, the Peruvian economy could suffer as "collateral damage." Furthermore, it is expected that Trump will implement tax cuts and spending increases to support his protectionist policy and improve the country's infrastructure, which could deepen the existing fiscal deficit and increase US public debt. This, in turn, could lead to a resurgence of inflation and volatility in global financial markets, given the importance of the dollar as a reference currency. On the other hand, it is anticipated that Trump will neglect the fight against climate change, prioritizing the development of projects related to the production of raw materials and deficit technologies in the US. This strategy would also have implications in international relations, especially regarding rivalry with China and the formation of commercial and political alliances globally. In this uncertain geopolitical context, it is essential for governments and economic actors to prepare to face the possible scenarios that may arise in the event of a second term for Trump. The creation of specialized groups and anticipation of the measures the president may take are key to minimizing the negative impacts on the global economy and on countries that could be affected by the decisions of the US president. Ultimately, economic uncertainty seems to be a constant if Trump returns to the presidency, and it is necessary to be prepared to face the challenges that this entails.