Concern about the decline in global fertility rates: What implications will it have in the future?

A study published by The Lancet has raised concerns by revealing that the global fertility rate is experiencing an unprecedented decline. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), it is expected that by 2050, more than three-quarters of countries in the world will not reach fertility rates sufficient to maintain their population size, a figure that will increase to 97% by the year 2100. This decline in fertility rates will have significant implications in various aspects of society, from the economy to food security, health, the environment, and geopolitical security. Experts warn that governments must begin to plan responses to these looming threats. The demographic contrast between the wealthiest countries, with low fertility rates, and the poorest countries, with still high rates, is a highlighted point in the study. Additionally, it is anticipated that births will increasingly concentrate in regions most vulnerable to various factors such as climate change, poverty, and political instability. In this context, demography experts suggest the need to evaluate family policies that could influence fertility rates, such as expanding parental leave, universalizing childcare facilities, and improving access to assisted reproductive treatments in countries with very low rates. Regarding the economic and social implications, the aging population is highlighted as an important factor to consider. This could impact the sustainability of pension systems and the financing of welfare states. The possibility of changes in these systems is suggested, such as establishing a basic pension for all and relying on private plans. In the specific case of Spain, it is noted that the challenge lies not so much in the lack of workers but in the low productivity of the economic system and the precariousness of the labor market. Despite having highly educated young generations, working conditions and wages limit their contribution to the pension system. It is evident that the global demographic situation is undergoing significant changes that will require appropriate political and social responses to ensure the sustainability of societies in the future.