Unfavorable forecast for avocado exports in Peru: a decrease of 16% to 20% in 2024.

The Association of Producers and Exporters of Hass Avocado from Peru (Prohass) has issued a discouraging forecast for avocado exports in the current year. Despite a slight growth in avocado shipments in 2023, a significant decrease in the volume exported in 2024 is expected, which could reach between 16% and 20% less than the previous year. The president of Prohass, Juan Carlos Paredes Rosales, explained that adverse weather conditions during the last semester of the previous year and the first quarter of this year have had a negative impact on avocado production. This scenario has led to a lower supply of the fruit and a consequent drop in production, resulting in a challenging outlook for exporters. Despite this unfavorable forecast regarding the exported volume, global demand for avocados continues to rise, as indicated by Prohass. With the lower supply and growing demand, it is expected that avocado prices will experience a significant increase throughout the year. Prices are estimated to increase by up to 50%, representing an improvement compared to 2023. The Economic Studies Department of Scotiabank projects that the average export price of avocados will hover around US$1.80 per kilo in 2024, which would mean a 12% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, it is estimated that the total value of avocado exports will slightly exceed the US$964 million from 2023. Despite the challenges facing the avocado industry in Peru, the country is expected to remain the second-largest exporter of this fruit globally. César Romero, an economist specializing in markets and foreign trade at the Ministry of Agricultural Development and Irrigation, points out that the value of exports could increase by 10% to 15% in the country, thus offsetting the decline in the exported volume with the increase in the global fruit price. Although the outlook presents challenges, it is expected that, thanks to the high prices and growing demand, the avocado industry in Peru will maintain its position as an important global supplier. Despite climatic adversities and production challenges, a promising future is envisioned for this key sector of the Peruvian economy.