The communist Cuba is on the brink of collapse: An inevitable change?

The communist Cuba is on the brink of collapse In the midst of the crises shaking Latin America, a fact that went almost unnoticed was the recent request for assistance from the Cuban government to the United Nations to address a growing food shortage. This unprecedented request reflects the serious economic situation facing the island, affected by various causes ranging from the tightening of U.S. restrictions to the decline in domestic production and the weakened post-Covid tourism industry. The streets of Cuba have witnessed demonstrations in which the population clamored for "power and food," demonstrating an unusual social unrest in a country where dissent has historically been forcefully suppressed. The current economic crisis represents an unprecedented challenge for the Communist Party of Cuba, which has ruled the island since Fidel Castro's revolution in 1959. Amidst this situation, the Cuban regime has attempted to find internal scapegoats and distractions, such as the recent investigation for alleged corruption against a former Minister of Economy. Despite blaming the U.S. embargo, the reality is that Cuba has had the opportunity to import food from the United States since 2001, making it clear that the problem goes beyond this historical excuse. The loss of citizens, the exodus of educated youth in search of better opportunities, and the general economic crisis highlight the collapse of the Cuban socialist regime. Faced with this situation, the need for a fundamental change in the centralized and state-controlled model that governs Cuba is raised, posing a challenge to the survival of the regime and the future of the revolution. Although unpopular austerity measures have been taken, such as raising gasoline prices, and external assistance is being sought, uncertainty and chaos seem to be the most likely scenarios in the short term. While a possible transition in Cuba is awaited, it is crucial for both the United States and Latin America, as well as the rest of the world, to prepare to collaborate in building a modern and prosperous Cuba. It is necessary to promote ties with the emerging Cuban private sector, foster trade relations, and strengthen the country's economic interdependence. Despite the risks this poses to the regime, it is essential to keep alive the hope for a better future for the Cuban people. The current crisis in Cuba not only represents a challenge for the island but also an opportunity to work together for positive and sustainable change. By Juan Pablo Spinetto