Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello Vela, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
The Peruvian economy shows encouraging signs for this year, after experiencing a contraction of 0.55% in 2023. Despite an expected "rebound", the credit rating agency Moody's pointed out that organic growth will begin to materialize starting from the second half of this year. Jaime Reusche, Vice President of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, has emphasized that contractions in national production are no longer observed, leading to the expectation of a "rebound" during the first semester. Although official data is not available, a growth of 3% is estimated in the first six months of the year. Subsequently, a sustained recovery is expected, with an estimated growth of 2.5% in the second half of the year, which could result in a total growth of 2.7% for 2024. The Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) has indicated that the country is close to exiting the technical recession. A desestacionalized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 2% has been observed since October of last year, signaling an acceleration and increased dynamism in the economy. Teodoro Crisólogo, senior economist at IPE, has highlighted that despite this growth below potential, there are signs of an ongoing recovery. The Peruvian economy grew by 1.4% in January, driven by sectors linked to domestic demand. IPE has revised upwards its GDP growth projection for 2024, from 1.9% to 2.4%, due to an improvement in private spending and favorable conditions for investment. Although these figures remain below the estimates of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which place growth at 3%. For 2025, in a scenario without climatic shocks and with improvements in business expectations, a GDP growth of 2.8% is expected, according to IPE. However, a risk is noted due to political and electoral uncertainty, which could affect economic growth next year. In conclusion, the Peruvian economy shows positive signs of recovery, with a outlook of gradual growth and improvement in various economic indicators. However, factors such as political and electoral uncertainty pose challenges that could influence the pace of economic recovery in the coming years.