The Peruvian economy shows signs of recovery in 2024, according to Scotiabank.

The Peruvian economy has shown signs of a positive start in 2024, according to a detailed analysis conducted by Scotiabank. After four consecutive quarters of decline, in January the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) achieved an annual growth of 1.4%, marking an upward trend that is expected to continue in February. While the exact data for February has not yet been revealed, Scotiabank's projections indicate that the Peruvian economy continued on its path to recovery during that month. Factors such as the increase in electricity production, hydrocarbon extraction, public investment, and the sale of new vehicles point towards a promising outlook. However, despite this progress, the GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2024 vary among different economic actors. While Scotiabank estimates a growth of 2.7%, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) maintains a more optimistic expectation of 3%. This divergence is based on factors such as the recovery of primary sectors, socio-political stability, and lower inflation. The report highlights the performance of sectors such as Construction, which experienced a growth of 13.2% in January, driven by an increase in cement sales and higher investment by regional and local governments. Likewise, the Non-Primary Manufacturing and Services sectors also showed signs of recovery, with growth rates of 1.5% each. However, the negative influence of the El Niño phenomenon was felt in the Agricultural and Fisheries sector, with significant declines in the production of certain crops and in fishing activity. Although the GDP growth in January was in line with Scotiabank's projections, it fell below the expectations of a consensus of analysts. Together, these indicators reflect a mixed outlook for the Peruvian economy, with signs of recovery in some key sectors but persistent challenges in others. The evolution in February will be crucial in determining whether this positive trend consolidates throughout the year.