Armenia's Warning: Brink of War with Azerbaijan Over Disputed Villages

Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has issued a stark warning that his country could be on the brink of war with Azerbaijan if it does not return four disputed villages that have been under Armenian control since the early 1990s. Pashinyan's comments come amidst escalating tensions between the two neighboring countries over the long-standing territorial dispute in the region. The four villages in question, situated in northern Armenia's Tavush region, hold strategic importance as they lie along a key road connecting Yerevan to the Georgian border. Azerbaijan has insisted on the return of these villages, along with other territories, as a precondition for a peace agreement to resolve the decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which saw Azerbaijan reclaim significant territory in a swift offensive last September. Pashinyan's warning of a potential conflict "by the end of the week" if Armenia does not compromise and return the villages underscores the fragile nature of the situation. The recent military successes of Azerbaijan have reshaped the dynamics in the region, prompting Armenia to reconsider its stance and signal a willingness to make concessions. Despite international recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, the region has been predominantly controlled by ethnic Armenians since the early 1990s. Negotiations for a formal peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia have faced obstacles, including border demarcation issues and the militarization of the shared 1,000km border. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has expressed optimism about the prospects for peace, emphasizing the need for dialogue and reconciliation. However, the complex geopolitical landscape, with Armenia pivoting towards the West amid strained relations with Russia, adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation. The involvement of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in talks with both Armenia and Azerbaijan reflects the international community's interest in fostering stability in the region. However, Russian officials have voiced concerns about Armenia's shifting allegiances and the potential impact on regional security. As Armenia navigates its foreign policy choices, balancing its historical ties with Russia and its aspirations for closer cooperation with the West, the stakes remain high. The specter of renewed conflict looms large, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions and find a lasting resolution to the long-standing territorial disputes in the South Caucasus.