The Peruvian economy expects positive growth in the first quarter: BCR boosts economic activity

The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) has announced that the Peruvian economy will experience positive growth in the first quarter of the year, following four consecutive quarters of decline. This projection is based on lower inflation and indicators pointing to a recovery in the average real income of the private sector. Adrián Armas, Manager of Economic Studies at the BCR, noted that in February there was a recovery in economic activity, with most leading indicators and expectations showing positive signs. Although some caution still persists, especially in eight out of the 18 indicators analyzed, this represents progress compared to the previous month. The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported that the production of the Mining and Hydrocarbons sector grew by 3.96% in January 2024, contributing to the momentum of the national economy. Additionally, the monthly inflation in February reached 0.56%, with an annual inflation of 3.29%, slightly surpassing the target range set by the BCR. In this context, Armas highlighted that Peru continues to maintain controlled inflation compared to other countries, and it is expected that inflation will converge towards the target range in the coming months. Furthermore, inflation expectations for the next twelve months have remained within this range for the third consecutive month, suggesting a downward trend in the future. The BCR has implemented measures to stimulate the economy, such as reducing the reserve requirement for deposits, thereby releasing significant resources. This strategy is part of a monetary easing policy aimed at stimulating economic activity and fostering sustained growth. In summary, the economic outlook for the first quarter of the year is encouraging, with signs of recovery in various sectors and controlled inflation aiming to converge towards established objectives. However, it will be important to closely monitor the evolution of economic indicators and the measures implemented to ensure sustainable and balanced growth in the country.