Super Tuesday, key primary will define Biden and Trump's candidacies

Super Tuesday, the key day of the primaries that will define the candidacies of Biden and Trump Super Tuesday is the most anticipated day for presidential candidates in the United States during the primary stage. It has become a tradition since the 1980s and has since been used to determine the candidates with the best chance of reaching the White House. And this Super Tuesday on March 5 - where 15 states and American Samoa will vote - will practically confirm what everyone already knows: that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee and Joe Biden the Democrat. The rematch of the presidents is almost set, although there are still months left until the official nominations, as well as several other primaries in different states. The date is crucial, as due to the high number of states voting, a significant number of delegates are distributed, who represent the candidacies. Taking into account that they are indirect elections, to win the Republican primaries, the candidate needs 1,215 delegates, while on the Democratic side, 1,969 delegates are required. Although this time the elections are quite predictable - unlike previous campaigns where the primaries were highly competitive - this year's primaries are laying the groundwork for what may come in the general election in November. And this signifies the true support that both Trump and Biden may have leading up to the crucial day. "When you have a president running for reelection, as is the case with the Democratic Party, then there is no longer a competitive primary. In addition to Biden, there are two contenders for the nomination who are harmless. It is a protocol and something more symbolic," expresses political scientist María Puerta Riera, professor of American Government at Valencia College in Orlando, to El Comercio. "In the case of the Republican Party, they have a similar scenario because it is very clear that former President Trump will be the nominee. So, this Super Tuesday will solidify the nominations of Trump and Biden," she adds. Both are heading into Super Tuesday with well-defined numbers. While the president has secured 206 delegates and his opponents none, the Republican has accumulated 110 compared to the 20 held by Nikky Haley, the only rival to Trump in these primaries. Haley, former governor of South Carolina and former US ambassador to the UN, has set the Super Tuesday as a goal to continue in the race and see how many more delegates she can gather, although the task seems daunting. She has presented herself as an alternative to Trump in order to "save the country" and has sought to capture the moderate Republican vote that still does not accept the leadership of the New Yorker, but it seems it may not be enough. "The main reason Haley is staying in the race is to show the Republican Party that, although the majority of its members choose Trump, a significant part has come to reject his way of doing politics," explains Nevena Trajkov, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Jacksonville, Florida, to El Comercio. "She will stay until Super Tuesday to demonstrate that she can obtain 40% of Republican votes and a significant portion of independent votes, becoming a legitimate Plan B if they decide to replace Trump on the ballot," she points out. According to BBC, some Republican strategists and spokespeople from her campaign command indicate that Haley is also aiming towards the upcoming 2028 presidential elections, when Trump's name will definitively be out of the race, and these primaries would serve as a huge platform for exposure (and fundraising). "Although she is not harming Trump's campaign, she is showing a vulnerability on the Republican side that Biden does not have, and that is that the president is polling higher in states compared to what Trump is getting," Puerta Riera points out. And not only that, he is also raising a lot of money, while the donations Trump is receiving are not only going towards the campaign but also to cover his legal expenses in the four pending criminal cases. On the Democratic side, things are not easy for the president either, especially after what happened in the Michigan primaries. Although his rivals were not a cause for concern and Biden secured 81% of the votes, a protest campaign tarnished his numbers. The 'uncommitted' option achieved a surprising 13.3%, thanks to the call from progressive activists and the Arab community in the state to reject the support the US government is giving to Israel in the Gaza Strip. This issue is significant as it involved 100,000 uncommitted votes in Michigan, known for being a swing state, meaning it switches from Republican to Democrat in each election, and it is in these states where the president is ultimately decided. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Michigan by just a 2.8% difference. However, Trajkov points out that these numbers must be put into perspective. "Michigan is a state where the primaries are open, meaning a registered voter can vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries. It is important to remember that most Arabs in Michigan are registered Republicans and small business owners," she notes. Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what is clear is that both parties already have their nominees defined, regardless of the lawsuits or health issues both may carry. But until November, the race will be long.