Russia's Brutal War Calculus: A Tale of Resilience and Uncertainty

Russia's Brutal War Calculus Two years of war in Ukraine have taken a toll on both sides, but while the costs have been enormous, many Russians are surprisingly optimistic about the situation. Isolated from the West and increasingly dependent on China, Russia has seen a resurgence in its economy, despite facing punishing sanctions and political repression reminiscent of the Soviet era. The war has reshaped Russian society in profound ways. While government critics face imprisonment and young men fight and die on the front lines, those who support the official line are experiencing a sense of optimism. President Vladimir Putin's popularity has surged to its highest level in seven years, as many Russians believe that the invasion of Ukraine is a necessary defense against perceived threats from the West. Despite initial concerns about the impact of sanctions and military spending, Russia's economy has remained resilient. Emergency financial measures, high oil prices, and increased trade with China and India have helped stabilize the economy. However, there are signs of potential trouble ahead, such as the risk of an overheated economy and shortages in critical sectors. Mr. Putin's military initially faced challenges in Ukraine but has regrouped and made significant gains on the front lines. Despite the costs incurred so far, Russia still faces uncertainties about the long-term sustainability of its wartime economy. The government's campaign of propaganda and repression has allowed Mr. Putin to maintain a strong grip on power, with nationalist sentiment and patriotic education playing key roles in shaping public opinion. While many Russians support the war effort, there is also a growing desire for peace. Half of Russians express a desire to start peace talks, indicating that there is a weariness with the ongoing conflict. The economic incentives for soldiers fighting in Ukraine are significant, but the human cost of the war cannot be ignored. As Russia continues its military operations in Ukraine, the country finds itself at a crossroads, balancing economic stability with the high costs of war. The future remains uncertain, with the potential for further escalation or diplomatic resolution hanging in the balance.