Juan Brignardello Vela
Juan Brignardello Vela, asesor de seguros, se especializa en brindar asesoramiento y gestión comercial en el ámbito de seguros y reclamaciones por siniestros para destacadas empresas en el mercado peruano e internacional.
Following a 0.55% decline in the closing of 2023, the Peruvian economy has faced challenging times, but it seems there is light at the end of the tunnel. According to a recent study by the Economic Studies Department of Scotiabank, it is projected that the country's economy will begin to recover from the first quarter of 2024 with a 1.5% rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This recovery forecast is based on several factors indicating improvement in various sectors. Although December of last year marked the last month of negative evolution, with a 0.7% decline, the outlook for the first months of this year is more encouraging. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, which saw a 0.4% decline due to social protests and climatic anomalies, a positive scenario is expected driven by sectors such as construction and fishing. In January, although a growth rate lower than the first quarter average is forecasted, sectors like construction show signs of recovery, with domestic cement consumption increasing by 6% after 15 consecutive months of declines. On the other hand, mining is also expected to continue growing. February is projected to be the month with the highest expansion rate in the first quarter, without the negative impact of the fishing sector and benefiting from an additional workday due to the leap year. However, March could present challenges due to the Easter holidays, which would reduce the number of workdays and could affect the expected progress. Scotiabank maintains its GDP growth projection at 2.7% for 2024, hoping that factors such as protests and climatic phenomena do not affect the outlook. For the second quarter of the year, sectors like fishing and agriculture are expected to lead the recovery, supported by a rebound in public and private investment, especially in construction and manufacturing. Additionally, a gradual improvement is expected in sectors like Trade and Services, driven by an increase in private consumption due to inflation deceleration and employment recovery. Although the path to economic recovery is not without challenges, the signs of improvement are encouraging for the Peruvian economy in 2024.