Uncertainty in the anchovy fishing for 2024: experts foresee challenges due to possible impact of La Niña

Anchoveta fishing for the year 2024 is in a situation of uncertainty, according to experts in the sector. After a year in which poor weather conditions severely impacted fishing activity, resulting in a 19.75% decrease, it is expected that the next semester could improve, although doubts still persist about the influence of the weather on the upcoming season. Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies at the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), stated during the presentation of the monetary program for February that the possible occurrence of the climatic phenomenon La Niña could affect economic growth in the country. The probability of La Niña occurring between March and July, with a weak magnitude of 27% to 33%, adds a factor of uncertainty to fishing activity. Luis Icochea, oceanographic researcher at the National Agrarian University La Molina, mentioned that sea temperatures continue to be high, which has led to changes in anchoveta fishing patterns. The presence of warm waters in the Peruvian sea has caused a displacement of the schools, affecting the capture of this resource. In 2023, poor weather conditions led to the imposition of fishing bans due to the presence of juvenile anchoveta, resulting in the failure to catch the established quota. These factors have raised concerns among experts, who warn about the possible negative influence of La Niña on industrial and artisanal fishing. Juan Carlos Riveros, scientific director of Oceana Peru, explained that La Niña could significantly decrease anchoveta catches, affecting Peruvian industrial fishing. The dispersion of marine species due to sea cooling hampers fishing activity, especially for anchoveta, whose capture would require longer trips by the industrial fleet. In this context, Mariano Gutiérrez, scientific director of the Humboldt Institute, emphasized that under a scenario of medium-intensity coastal La Niña, the dispersion of phytoplankton, the main food source for anchoveta, far from its usual areas, could negatively impact the availability of this resource. Given the possibility of a new climatic phenomenon and the uncertainty about the conditions for anchoveta fishing in 2024, constant monitoring by the authorities and adequate planning are necessary to mitigate possible impacts on fishing activity and the country's economy.