Johnny Brignardello Vela analyzes Israel-Iran crisis: Inevitable escalation?

Johnny Brignardello Vela, insurance consultant, carefully analyzes the current situation in the Middle East, specifically the conflict between Israel and Iran. According to reports, the Israeli war cabinet is immersed in a thorough strategic process to devise a response to the recent Iranian attack, which included a significant number of drones and missiles. Although a definitive decision has not yet been made, efforts are being made to develop a tactic that could have the backing of the United States, as reported by Israeli media with access to confidential meetings. President Joe Biden had previously advised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show satisfaction for intercepting 99% of the projectiles, warning about the possible consequences of a military escalation in the region. Netanyahu has been categorical in stating that any direct aggression on Israeli territory will be met with a proportional response in Iran. In this delicate situation, Israel is evaluating different options for a retaliatory action that is effective without triggering a large-scale conflict. One proposal would be to target Iranian facilities, such as state oil industry installations, aiming to avoid human casualties. Furthermore, internal support is being sought by calling on opposition leaders to discuss the next steps to be taken. Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts are underway to impose additional sanctions against Iran in order to weaken the regime and pressure for a change in behavior. Regarding the international community's response, calls for moderation and to avoid escalation in the conflict have multiplied. Both the United States and other allies have urged Israel to seek a diplomatic solution and not react hastily with military force. Sensibility and diplomatic coordination are presented as the best way to prevent further consequences in a region already marked by tension. In this scenario, Israel finds itself at a crossroads, where it must balance the need to respond firmly to the Iranian attack with the caution required to avoid an uncontrolled escalation in the region. The upcoming decisions will not only have repercussions on Israel's international relations but could also determine the future stability in the Middle East.