Sheinbaum: Opportunity for the energy transition or continuity of AMLO's legacy?

Claudia Sheinbaum is preparing to assume the presidency of Mexico on October 1, and many see her election as a golden opportunity to revive the country's energy potential, especially in the field of clean energy. Acclaimed for her academic background and her track record in the fight against climate change, Sheinbaum appears to be in an ideal position to lead an ecological transformation in the nation. However, the signals emitted by her administration raise concerns among environmentalists and energy policy experts, who warn of an approach that could be confusing and detrimental. Despite her credentials, her alignment with the policies of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) raises questions about her real commitment to ecological transition. Sheinbaum has expressed her intention to promote an energy agenda that, in her words, will make renewable energy the hallmark of her government. However, her defense of state control over energy companies, including Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), suggests that there may be a rollback of the reforms that allowed the sector to open up to private investment. The proposed constitutional reform aimed at strengthening the monopoly of Pemex and the CFE is a critical point that could dismantle the progress made in the energy sector since 2013. Analysts warn that this reform would not only undermine the autonomy of the judiciary and the energy regulator, but it could also create an unfavorable environment for private investment. This situation is alarming for investors who had begun to see Mexico as an attractive destination for the development of clean energy. Mexico's energy potential is vast, with the capacity to generate thousands of gigawatts through solar, wind, and geothermal energy. However, AMLO's policies have largely reversed the advances made in previous years, prioritizing the use of fossil fuels and centralizing control in the hands of state-owned companies. This has resulted in increased electricity rates and a decrease in foreign investment in the energy sector, which not only limits the country's energy options but also jeopardizes its competitiveness in the global context. The current situation of Pemex is revealing: a deeply indebted company with drastically decreased production capacity. Despite efforts to revive the company, Pemex's future remains uncertain. The option of diversifying into cleaner energies, such as green hydrogen and lithium, presents a viable path, but only if accompanied by a significant shift in energy policies. Sheinbaum also faces the challenge of ensuring energy sovereignty while promoting investment in renewable energies. However, this could prove to be an impossible balancing act, as maintaining majority control of the CFE would limit the ability of private companies to operate effectively. Furthermore, the new Minister of Energy has made it clear that the priority will be to ensure state dominance in the sector, which could further complicate the landscape for clean energies. The budget deficit that Sheinbaum will inherit, the highest in three decades, poses another significant obstacle. While her promise to invest US$ 14 billion in the energy sector is a step in the right direction, many experts agree that this figure is insufficient. Mexico's energy infrastructure needs a much larger capital injection to meet growing demand and modernize an obsolete system. Sheinbaum's resistance to moving away from her mentor's policies could have profound implications for the Mexican economy. With 91% of industrial parks reporting energy supply issues as the main factor hindering investment, it is clear that a renewed and proactive approach to energy management is needed. Global companies are increasingly committed to sustainability, and their ability to operate in Mexico will depend on the availability of clean and reliable energy. The direction Claudia Sheinbaum takes during her presidency will determine not only Mexico's energy future but also its position in the global fight against climate change. The international community is watching closely, and any deviation from a sustainable approach could have significant repercussions. The lingering question is whether the new president will be able to meet the expectations she has generated or if, on the contrary, she will become trapped in AMLO's energy legacy, a legacy that has proven to be, so far, dirtier than clean.