Reform UK's Surging Support and the Conservative Party's Concerns

Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has achieved its strongest ever results in recent by-elections, sending a clear warning to the Conservative Party ahead of the next general election. The party won 13% of the votes in Wellingborough and 10.4% in Kingswood, which is consistent with its national polling average of 10%. While the party has struggled to translate its support into election wins in the past, analysis suggests that most of Reform's support in the by-elections came from the Conservatives, who lost the seats with significant swings to Labour. Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice indicates that for every voter who switched from Conservative to Labour since 2019, another voter has switched to Reform UK. Reform UK leader Richard Tice has expressed his desire to "smash" and "destroy" the Conservative Party at the general election. He has ruled out a repeat of the Brexit Party's 2019 deal with the Tories, where they withdrew candidates in certain constituencies after Boris Johnson committed to leaving the EU by 2020. Reform UK's appeal lies in targeting voters disenchanted with both major parties, and Tice has been critical of Labour as well. However, the party's policies align with the right-wing views of many Tories, such as a tougher stance on immigration and the scrapping of the government's net zero commitments. Former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has acknowledged the need for Conservatives to appeal to Reform UK voters, emphasizing common ground between the two parties. However, there is concern within the Tory Party about the potential return of Nigel Farage, who remains popular among the right-wing faction. Although Farage has stated that he has no plans to run for a parliamentary seat, he is expected to play a prominent role in Reform UK's general election campaign. Given the first-past-the-post electoral system in the UK, smaller parties like Reform UK face challenges in winning seats. Nevertheless, Reform UK's growing support could have detrimental effects on the Conservative Party's ability to retain power in the next general election. The party's level of support currently does not guarantee any seats, but it could damage the Tories' chances by siphoning off right-wing and Brexit-supporting voters. This could open up opportunities for other parties, particularly Labour, to secure victories in traditionally Conservative areas. Conservative MPs are taking notice of Reform UK's rise, with some acknowledging that combined Tory and Reform votes could have prevented a Labour victory in Kingswood. Labour's campaign coordinator Pat McFadden predicts that the Conservative Party will face internal divisions between those who want to align with Reform UK and those who want to distance themselves from it. The emergence of Reform UK signifies a potential shift in the political landscape. Despite never having a single MP, the party has the potential to shape the direction of British politics and the composition of the next parliament.